Posted On: Tuesday - March 11th 2025 6:36PM MST
In Topics: Websites Trump Economics
I've written about this before. This group of people - the ZeroHedge commenters, who lean heavily anti-Regime Economic System and understand economics better than most, will complain when they're losing money in the Regime Economic System. That was the case a dozen years ago, and now I'm seeing the same thing. It's amusing.
Articles and comments there lean heavily Conservative and pro-Trump. Not all the commenters agree with Trump's tariffs, but I would say most understand the concept. The US has been getting screwed in trade, by either tariffs or unfair practices of various kinds (think especially China for 30 years here!). Even if you, like the esteemed Ron Paul here, (something we wrote about before in Ron Paul is wrong about something.) don't agree with the basic idea of tariffs, you may still understand the 3 reasons Trump has pushed them into place.
1) Yeah, it's been unfair. Canada tariffs the crap on lots of American imports, and China makes it hard to import goods, so let's just give back what we've been given.
2) President Trump has used tariffs as a bargaining tool to get Canada and Mexico to strengthen their borders. I'd say the onus for border control is on the receiving country - Trump is so far doing a bang-up job on this - but this is another way to get some things changed.
3) The most important and one I'd figure most people understand, to help bring back manufacturing to America. You can't have a serious economy in a big country like this without a serious manufacturing base. We simply can't go along selling each other gourmet hamburgers and craft beer.
Ahhh, but muh DOW JONES! It's what, 7-8% or so down since the high a month back. OMG! Honestly, since I don't give a wit really, other than in knowing when the SHTF is imminent, I had no idea the Dow was out of the 30,000s. No, you can't win if you don't enter! (You can't lose either.)
Reading those comments was a little disconcerting, as all of a sudden Trump is the bad guy for lots of the commenters. How about a little support and you quit worrying about your "earnings"? Long term changes must be made, and they will involve a lot more financial pain for Americans than this small drop in the Dow.
SITE NOTE: I spent lots of time arguing on the internet today, so I'm sorry this is all I've got. There's lots of good stuff to come, but, the last 3 days of this bidness week will be onerous. There may not be any posts up until Saturday. Sorry about that.
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[UPDATED 03/12:] Added link to previous post about Ron Paul's opinion on tariffs.
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Comments:
The Alarmist
Thursday - March 13th 2025 6:17AM MST
PS
I hear ya ... US money markets aren't the worst thing you can do in the current environment. The possibilities in the Euro markets are far worse, and transaction costs for retail investors are awful. The Eau wonders why people don't do more investing, so they're pushing through what they call a EU Savings Union, which smells to me like a new set of capital controls coming down the road.
Hey, the USN seizes "US sanctioned" cargos on the high seas, so what's a little mor piracy hoing to matter. Technically the US hasn't seized Russian asset (yet), merely impounded them. Kleptocrats going to Kleptocrat.
🕉
I hear ya ... US money markets aren't the worst thing you can do in the current environment. The possibilities in the Euro markets are far worse, and transaction costs for retail investors are awful. The Eau wonders why people don't do more investing, so they're pushing through what they call a EU Savings Union, which smells to me like a new set of capital controls coming down the road.
Hey, the USN seizes "US sanctioned" cargos on the high seas, so what's a little mor piracy hoing to matter. Technically the US hasn't seized Russian asset (yet), merely impounded them. Kleptocrats going to Kleptocrat.
🕉
SafeNow
Thursday - March 13th 2025 3:16AM MST
PS
If (when?) there is a conflict with China, will The US seize Chinese cargo vessels that are in US waters? Such seizure of civilian assets would be, like, the thing you do when you are at war. After all, The US seized $300B of Russian assets, and we are only in a proxy war. War-college type of talk of a US-China conflict seems to be limited to military vessels. But what about my Amazon delivery of China goods.
If (when?) there is a conflict with China, will The US seize Chinese cargo vessels that are in US waters? Such seizure of civilian assets would be, like, the thing you do when you are at war. After all, The US seized $300B of Russian assets, and we are only in a proxy war. War-college type of talk of a US-China conflict seems to be limited to military vessels. But what about my Amazon delivery of China goods.
Moderator
Wednesday - March 12th 2025 8:29PM MST
PS: I meant to add one more thing, Alarmist. That is, I'm too conservative financially to take advantage of investments on someone else's bad days. I wish I could just save and get REAL interest and be done with it. That doesn't work in the here and now though...
Moderator
Wednesday - March 12th 2025 8:27PM MST
PS: "Professionally, I’m sitting on a lot more cash than my peers, and I’ve taken positions contrary to their hopes for rate cuts for some time now. " I'm not the professional financial guy that you are, Alarmist, so I'll ask, does that mean cash as in money in plain old bank accounts and CD's? (Not to mention actual paper cash in undisclosed locations.)
The cash is still getting eaten by inflation, and that 4% in CD's gets taxed at the highest (marginal) rate. Then, as I think I wrote about somewhere in the comments here, the early withdrawal policy is ONEROUS, as opposed to 20 years ago.
"Always short Jim Cramer calls." Ha! I remember the guy from way back - it must have been in the 1990s even, IIRC. I don't think much of any of those get-rich-quick guys.
I agree completely with your 2nd-to-last paragraph. I just realized that I wrote about Ron Paul's view on tariffs almost a year ago. I'll put a link to that pos in this one.
The cash is still getting eaten by inflation, and that 4% in CD's gets taxed at the highest (marginal) rate. Then, as I think I wrote about somewhere in the comments here, the early withdrawal policy is ONEROUS, as opposed to 20 years ago.
"Always short Jim Cramer calls." Ha! I remember the guy from way back - it must have been in the 1990s even, IIRC. I don't think much of any of those get-rich-quick guys.
I agree completely with your 2nd-to-last paragraph. I just realized that I wrote about Ron Paul's view on tariffs almost a year ago. I'll put a link to that pos in this one.
The Alarmist
Wednesday - March 12th 2025 1:40PM MST
PS
There are ways to make money in any market, though sometimes the best move might be to simply not play. Professionally, I’m sitting on a lot more cash than my peers, and I’ve taken positions contrary to their hopes for rate cuts for some time now. If your only play is to go long equities and Treasuries at this point, you aren’t thinking of the real state of the economic world, and are likely following the talking points of the financial media talking heads.
By the way, Jim Cramer kind of suggested, but dithered nonetheless, that the tariffs might be bad for investors. There are two Cramer lessons in play here:
1) Never go full retard, which he surprisingly did not do this time. Boo Ya ! Learned something from his Bear Stearns call back in the day; and
2) Always short Jim Cramer calls. He didn’t make a full throated call on tariffs, but I will take the side that he secretly doesn’t like them.
Me? I’m pro tariffs. I want the Trumpster to stick it hard to the Davos puppets running the EU, UK, Canada, and Mexico, and I want America to get out of the globalist trap of free trade which has been used to destroy American Industry, plunder the wealth of the American middle-class, destroy the future well being of all Americans. and portraying cheap labor as a necessary tool to stay competitive in a world where, sui generis, the American labor force are still very competitive vis à vis most others. Like Russia, the US has the resources to on-shore most of its productive capacity and function well as an autarky not subject to the vicissitudes of the whims of our trading partners. Screw the rest of the world for a decade or two. It will be rough, but we’ll come out the other side much better off than folks like the Brits and Eurotrash, who have guzzled the Davos Kool Aid®️.
Somebody’s bad day in the markets can be your good day if you have cash, patience, and a well thought through investment theme.
🕉
There are ways to make money in any market, though sometimes the best move might be to simply not play. Professionally, I’m sitting on a lot more cash than my peers, and I’ve taken positions contrary to their hopes for rate cuts for some time now. If your only play is to go long equities and Treasuries at this point, you aren’t thinking of the real state of the economic world, and are likely following the talking points of the financial media talking heads.
By the way, Jim Cramer kind of suggested, but dithered nonetheless, that the tariffs might be bad for investors. There are two Cramer lessons in play here:
1) Never go full retard, which he surprisingly did not do this time. Boo Ya ! Learned something from his Bear Stearns call back in the day; and
2) Always short Jim Cramer calls. He didn’t make a full throated call on tariffs, but I will take the side that he secretly doesn’t like them.
Me? I’m pro tariffs. I want the Trumpster to stick it hard to the Davos puppets running the EU, UK, Canada, and Mexico, and I want America to get out of the globalist trap of free trade which has been used to destroy American Industry, plunder the wealth of the American middle-class, destroy the future well being of all Americans. and portraying cheap labor as a necessary tool to stay competitive in a world where, sui generis, the American labor force are still very competitive vis à vis most others. Like Russia, the US has the resources to on-shore most of its productive capacity and function well as an autarky not subject to the vicissitudes of the whims of our trading partners. Screw the rest of the world for a decade or two. It will be rough, but we’ll come out the other side much better off than folks like the Brits and Eurotrash, who have guzzled the Davos Kool Aid®️.
Somebody’s bad day in the markets can be your good day if you have cash, patience, and a well thought through investment theme.
🕉
Moderator
Wednesday - March 12th 2025 9:25AM MST
PS: Good morning, M. The Chinese are running out of their previous lots of cheap labor at this point. Anyone born before the 1-child policy is well over 40 y/o now.
I agree with your point, but then how much of certain products are labor? For some it's a big part and others not so much. If you make the foreign product 30% higher, it's very possible Americans making OK wages, not 1970s auto union adj for inflation, but OK would work.
My remarks - wrote this a few times - about selling the craft beer and gourmet burgers, is that I don't see a pure Service Economy working out for us. One guy sells craft beer and he frequents the burger place to spend his money, and vice versa. (Just a very small example.)
BTW, back in 1992, I supported Paul Tsongas and helped out a little bit when he campaigned where I live. Yes, a Democrat (GASP!) from Massachusetts (GASP!!!!) even, he was. I understood as he tried to convince Americans that we needed to keep our manufacturing. Well, Clinton blew out the D-crowd, but then, at the same time, Ross Perot came along. The rest is unfortunate history.
I agree with your point, but then how much of certain products are labor? For some it's a big part and others not so much. If you make the foreign product 30% higher, it's very possible Americans making OK wages, not 1970s auto union adj for inflation, but OK would work.
My remarks - wrote this a few times - about selling the craft beer and gourmet burgers, is that I don't see a pure Service Economy working out for us. One guy sells craft beer and he frequents the burger place to spend his money, and vice versa. (Just a very small example.)
BTW, back in 1992, I supported Paul Tsongas and helped out a little bit when he campaigned where I live. Yes, a Democrat (GASP!) from Massachusetts (GASP!!!!) even, he was. I understood as he tried to convince Americans that we needed to keep our manufacturing. Well, Clinton blew out the D-crowd, but then, at the same time, Ross Perot came along. The rest is unfortunate history.
M
Wednesday - March 12th 2025 6:58AM MST
PS
High wages are caused by people having lots of choices as to what to do. Americans have lots of choices. Chinese in many cases still don't, which is why cost of labor in China is still much lower.
Canadians don't have as many choices. Why else do you think there are so many Canadian actors in Hollywood, or Canadians in the tech companies?
Making steel, or ships, requires lots of labor. Lots of labor = lots of money spent on wages = high cost per ton.
Which means you can't sell that steel, or that ship. Since people like money, including prospective buyers.
About the only way to get around this is to make it so you use less labor to make a ton of steel, or a ship.
The US has done this during crises building for ships, e.g.
making ships in blocks and then assembling the blocks.
However, when the crisis was over, the unions pushed them back to the old ways since they foresaw fewer union employees in the future unless they did so.
The "gourmet burgers and craft beer" is being sold because they've managed to segment the market. The company selling the beer is selling something only they can make, so they're basically competing with themselves. It's hard to substitute one craft beer for another since they're more different than e.g. Budweiser vs. Coors.
High wages are caused by people having lots of choices as to what to do. Americans have lots of choices. Chinese in many cases still don't, which is why cost of labor in China is still much lower.
Canadians don't have as many choices. Why else do you think there are so many Canadian actors in Hollywood, or Canadians in the tech companies?
Making steel, or ships, requires lots of labor. Lots of labor = lots of money spent on wages = high cost per ton.
Which means you can't sell that steel, or that ship. Since people like money, including prospective buyers.
About the only way to get around this is to make it so you use less labor to make a ton of steel, or a ship.
The US has done this during crises building for ships, e.g.
making ships in blocks and then assembling the blocks.
However, when the crisis was over, the unions pushed them back to the old ways since they foresaw fewer union employees in the future unless they did so.
The "gourmet burgers and craft beer" is being sold because they've managed to segment the market. The company selling the beer is selling something only they can make, so they're basically competing with themselves. It's hard to substitute one craft beer for another since they're more different than e.g. Budweiser vs. Coors.
Where's my stuff?! would be the cry from not only we consumers of Cheap China-made crap but also purchasing agents ("Buyers") in the US Gov't military branches who might need their parts for, say, I dunno, the electronics on those Navy ships. That calls for a cease fire.
I really don't think the people on either side want any kind of physical war. Can they be cajoled into it (as has happened many times/places before)? I hope not. I figure this will remain an economic struggle. Trump is fighting back, which is a change for ANYONE since this started 30 years ago.