Posted On: Thursday - January 16th 2025 9:00PM MST
In Topics: California The Future Science
Now, for something completely different!
That's Rapid Detection and Small-scale Supression. That sounds awfully MIC-like, I realize.
I had 3 other posts to write, which will be coming. However, as I read all about the Los Angeles fires from "a guy" who lives there, I thought I'd throw in an idea in the comments. It's just
Lots of the not-necessarily technically-oriented, but astute and worldly, commenters on Mr. Sailer's Unz Review blog wrote their ideas about what has gone wrong in Los Angeles and how to stop a disaster like this in the future. Let anyone say "Climate Change", even in your heads here, and I'm sorry, you can just get off this blog right now. Step off, Jack! (Or Jonathan.) Enough of that "unexpected, extreme weather events" bullshit. It gets hot in southern Cal, it's really a desert kept livable by a century of amazing engineering work and upkeep by the White man, and, yes that the place is now "no country for White men" has a whole lot to do with this disaster.
I won't get into any more of that here. On the non-political, practical side, there were loads of suggestions about better building materials, more and higher up reservoirs (helps to keep them filled too!) and tanks, mandatory ce-ment ponds (sorry!), piping all over the hillsides, and AnotherDad with his "Ring of Golf", haha! Besides some general simple building code changes, all of these are 10's or 100's of Billion dollar ideas. How about we do some out-of-the box thinking? See, Mr. Sailer, in his Takimag article on the fires*, Mr. Sailer rightly noted that America was a can-do country in the past, and California, per his timeline and personal/historic knowledge, flipped from that to a can't-do State with a 5 year period. It was '69, '70 ... it was a
No, big projects like the Los Angeles aqueducts that took water from the Owens Valley across the State and later from up north (Mono Basin, etc.) of a century back aren't things that can be done anymore.** "No can do."
What HAS changed since then that we CAN take advantage of, even in this world of D.I.E.? Remote sensing is one.- I'm not happy about the privacy aspects, but satellites and drones can observe with better and better resolution, storage, and speed. Secondly, drones have gotten pretty amazing in capability for other uses via modern (same thing, fast, high-storage, and cheap-sensor-laden) electronic technology.
Here's the idea: Due to the conditions often to be had in southern California, fires can spread rapidly. How long an interval must pass from detection by residents, patrol aircraft or whomever until firemen are actually at the scene with their equipment? The difference between a small fire still burning only a fraction of an acre and one burning down a whole hillside already maybe a few minutes or a big part of an hour, depending on those conditions - type of vegetation, temperature, and especially wind. Putting out a fire that just started would take a whole lot less water or retardant than one that's been burning down a hillside for an hour. I wish I had some numbers on this - average fire size as a function of time. (Again, it depends on a whole lot of variables besides just time.)
I don't have specs on military drones, but there are drones one can buy that can carry as much as 500 - 1000 lb. Most of those heavy-lift ones are for aerial spraying of crops, replacing the old Ag Cats (Grumman LUVS cats!), Air Tractors, Thrushes, and other cropdusting planes, and unfortunately, their amazingly skilled pilots***. I don't know the specs on the military ones, but obviously some can carry many tons. See some military drone/UAV**** info here. The ridiculous prices show us how much the MIL is scamming us!
Yeah, that's only a 150 gallons of water or retardant, lots more with the bigger military drones, but, compared to major infrastructure projects all around the huge Los Angeles basin, even military prices would be peanuts, and you don't need to pay those. A newly designed drone for the specific purpose could be used, with a few hundred made to be on stand-by. As a bonus, perhaps one small missile or two could be mounted, ready to blast to pieces the illegal aliens or mental cases who started said fire.
Let's get into that part. Speed is important, but jet aircraft speeds are not necessary and would probably be dangerous*****. Since some of these drones (the quad-copter or other helicopter style) need NO runway, one could find plenty of locations to base them - each with a decent-sized (filled-up!) water tank on site. For the winged machines, I imagine a hundred or two yards would do for a short-field craft. So, for a 5 minute response time, just an example (a number that is the crux of the whole idea), at 120 kt. flying speed, you'd cover a 10 mile radius, with a minute or two at most required for launch. Mr. Sailer puts the LA basin at 4,000 mi2 in his article. Allowing some slop for overlap (we're talking circles within a rough square), only 50, maybe 75 sites would need to be set up for these normally-on-standby operations.
It's not a "green" thing for me, as the reader should well know, but since the round-trip and mission time would be so short these drones could be electric, or, if Avgas or Jet-A (for a turboprop) powered, would not need a whole lot of fuel. That weight saved means more water or retardant can be carried.
Now, going out of order here, seeing as the "RaD" is for rapid detection, I'll mention something about remote sensing. (This is 2nd mainly because I don't know so much about the current state of it.)
There've been fire towers around big forests for I suppose a century, and aerial patrols by medium-low flying slow single engine planes having been done for easily half that long. One can see smoke from a long ways. However, pinpointing the position can take a while. With remote sensing, I know the resolution is amazing these days, down to feet. A fire burning a few square feet could be detected. Very accurate position information can be determined through image processing software. This can be done very quickly.
There's a nice fairly short overview article in Science Direct - Remote sensing for wildfire monitoring: Insights into burned area, emissions, and fire dynamics. This article is satellite-biased, I'd say, giving short shrift to UAVs/drones in one paragraph. There's a lot to say, based on cost and ability to improvise, for high-flying drones to do this work.
The article mentions some causes of false alarms, such as sunlight reflections off surfaces. However, the beauty of remote sensing in various wavelengths is that one (and eventually some software) can use just the right ones to find the "signature" of a fire only.
Of course, some known non-destructive fires, such as refinery flares or what-have-you could be put into a database to be ignored. Anything out of the ordinary though, could quickly result in the launch of a small-scale fire suppression drone. The quick response time would hopefully result in an arrival at a fire that is still small enough to be put out with those 100 gallons or whatever.
Back to the low-level small-scale suppression drones, I can see a whole lot of fun science/engineering involved in optimizing the suppression effectiveness. You've only got a small amount of water or retardant, compared to a series of helicopter drops or a blast from an overhead DC-10(!). Again, software can do about anything, so the spray pattern could be tinkered with to get the maximum effectiveness. Is it better to drop a whole lot of water around the periphery to stop the spread? Maybe a lower-rate sprinkling on the whole thing does more, with a number of runs taken. I don't know, but it'd be some fun theoretical modeling and (most of it) great experimental engineering work. Decide what works best, and make the drones do it that way.
That's the idea. One thing needed would be an air traffic avoidance feature based on the commonplace ADS-B. It'd look bad if an air crash was due to a drone hauling ass across the neighborhoods of LA to put out a barbecue. The way electronics are in today's world, if you can think of the logic, you can program it in.
This is Peak Stupidity's suggestion to improve the lot of Los Angelenos who might otherwise decamp to the real America, to the detriment of us all. To me, the cost would be 2 or 3 orders of magnitude lower than any other serious suggestions I've read of.
It's rad! It's badass! Hence, it's RaDaSS.
PS: I do know how fast fires spread from personal, errr, arson events. We only meant to burn a piece of potassium in a Dixie cup from the lab one day out in the weeds. I even brought my Mom's gardening water pot with us. Before you could say "hey, fire!", about 4 ft square was alight. It got worse quickly - it'd been really dry and the wind was up.
Luckily, the parents were away during the whole time we ran in to call the fire department, they came out with 4 trucks and put it out, they left, and the whole lot next to our house was blackened. "What happened?!" "I don't know. The field was on fire, so we called up and the fireman came and put it out." "OK." Whewwww!
* Yeah, I've not seen him write so much on one subject in a long time. (NOBODY mention the Kung Flu! [/Faulty Towers, was it?]
** There was a lot of political and actual fighting about it then, but, no matter what you think of that, there'd be no Los Angeles as we know it without the water projects. (Maybe that would have been for the best when we look at it now, but in the 1950s through '70s - man, it was probably the best place and time to have ever lived on Earth.)
*** They don't talk about long landings off the runway, so much as hitting fence posts. That's how low they fly.
**** Even from reading this "droneblog" web page that purports to explain the difference in many, many words, I don't get the difference!
***** That'd be one of the things to work out - flying these things in the busy airspace. Somewhat slower is better, lower is better, and they must keep away from airport runways.
*******************************
[UPDATED 01/17:] Added the one paragraph starting with "Back to the low-level..." I'd be really excited to be doing that kind of work. It's not for the stupid, ungrateful, and uncaring - Diversity need not apply.
*******************************
Comments:
Adam Smith
Tuesday - January 21st 2025 9:30AM MST
PS: Good morning, everyone!
M, ๐๐: ๐ข๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ข๐ก ๐๐ข๐๐.
๐ผ๐ก'๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ฆ ๐๐๐ก ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ข๐ ๐ ๐๐ก ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐...
Yeah. You're probably right about that. I really wasn't thinking about the optics. I only brought up using prisoners to clear the brush because they're already using prisoners for fire fighting. I'd like to think that the bleeding hearts would appreciate that clearing brush and doing some small controlled burns under normal conditions is much safer for the inmates than fighting blazing wildfires in 70-100mph Santa Ana winds. Perhaps I'm mistaken?
Achmed, ๐ด๐๐๐ข๐ก ๐กโ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ข๐๐๐ ...
I didn't mean to imply that everything needs to be burned. There are obviously going to be places, like the hills in the Angeles National bushes that you mention, that are better left unburned or even untouched. Perhaps some trimming and cleanup is in order(?) either by hand or with a bush hog. In some places it might be appropriate to use a forestry mulcher.(?) (Or some other machine more suited to the local environment.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bg8Te8i1fXQ
I do like your drone idea but I think some sort of large irrigation style system with sensors could also be useful. (Of course this relies on having water in the reservoirs and keeping the pumps running.) In any case, just leaving all the dead and dying brush and other debris is not a good idea. It is important to clear out as much of that as possible so these fires can't get so out of hand.
As you know, I spend quite a bit of time each fall cleaning and burning the leaves around here. (And I live in a moist climate. Down right wet compared to Southern California.) If I were to leave them they would be a fire hazard. (This house is built with sticks. I'm sure it would burn fast, especially on a windy night. I have to make sure that never happens.)
I can only imagine how much easier it is to spark up a wild fire in a place like Southern California. 5% humidity + all that dry fuel to feed the fire + Santa Ana winds... Well, you know the thing.
I've read of estimates as high as $300 billion in damages from the Los Angeles fires. That's almost like real money. I'd like to think that maybe they can do a better job of cleaning up around there to prevent other fires of this magnitude. I remain skeptical (competence crisis, DEI box checkers, and all that) but I hope they can figure it out.
So, Happy Tuesday! gentlemen.
I hope you guys have a great day! โฎ๏ธ
M, ๐๐: ๐ข๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ข๐ก ๐๐ข๐๐.
๐ผ๐ก'๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ฆ ๐๐๐ก ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ข๐ ๐ ๐๐ก ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐...
Yeah. You're probably right about that. I really wasn't thinking about the optics. I only brought up using prisoners to clear the brush because they're already using prisoners for fire fighting. I'd like to think that the bleeding hearts would appreciate that clearing brush and doing some small controlled burns under normal conditions is much safer for the inmates than fighting blazing wildfires in 70-100mph Santa Ana winds. Perhaps I'm mistaken?
Achmed, ๐ด๐๐๐ข๐ก ๐กโ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ข๐๐๐ ...
I didn't mean to imply that everything needs to be burned. There are obviously going to be places, like the hills in the Angeles National bushes that you mention, that are better left unburned or even untouched. Perhaps some trimming and cleanup is in order(?) either by hand or with a bush hog. In some places it might be appropriate to use a forestry mulcher.(?) (Or some other machine more suited to the local environment.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bg8Te8i1fXQ
I do like your drone idea but I think some sort of large irrigation style system with sensors could also be useful. (Of course this relies on having water in the reservoirs and keeping the pumps running.) In any case, just leaving all the dead and dying brush and other debris is not a good idea. It is important to clear out as much of that as possible so these fires can't get so out of hand.
As you know, I spend quite a bit of time each fall cleaning and burning the leaves around here. (And I live in a moist climate. Down right wet compared to Southern California.) If I were to leave them they would be a fire hazard. (This house is built with sticks. I'm sure it would burn fast, especially on a windy night. I have to make sure that never happens.)
I can only imagine how much easier it is to spark up a wild fire in a place like Southern California. 5% humidity + all that dry fuel to feed the fire + Santa Ana winds... Well, you know the thing.
I've read of estimates as high as $300 billion in damages from the Los Angeles fires. That's almost like real money. I'd like to think that maybe they can do a better job of cleaning up around there to prevent other fires of this magnitude. I remain skeptical (competence crisis, DEI box checkers, and all that) but I hope they can figure it out.
So, Happy Tuesday! gentlemen.
I hope you guys have a great day! โฎ๏ธ
Moderator
Saturday - January 18th 2025 8:25PM MST
PS: SafeNow, the firewatching ought to not take the kind of sophisticated modeling as you explained regarding the man-overboard algorithms. You just need accurate position. However, the fighting of the fires, with limited water or retardant, is what might take a lot of expertise to develop. Yes, get a team to develop it.
Thanks for the explanation of the Coast Guard methods. If they have locating beacons, that takes all the interesting work out of it, but it sure helps the guy in the water! They are so cheap now anyway.
Thanks for the explanation of the Coast Guard methods. If they have locating beacons, that takes all the interesting work out of it, but it sure helps the guy in the water! They are so cheap now anyway.
Moderator
Saturday - January 18th 2025 8:21PM MST
PS: M, prison labor these days probably results in the same quality products as come out of China too.
I'm all for the work that doesn't compete with private industry, cleaning litter, fighting these fires, etc.
I'm all for the work that doesn't compete with private industry, cleaning litter, fighting these fires, etc.
Moderator
Saturday - January 18th 2025 8:20PM MST
PS: Adam, the comprehensive long-term care of the environment takes competent management, meaning government entities without all the worthless grifting D.I.E. crowd. (You mentioned this at the bottom though.) I agree with much of it.
A few details I know about is that there used to be "Ice plants" (they were called) within the freeway cloverleafs and embankments. They had no needles, but were cactus in nature in that the triangular cross-sectioned "leaves" had a lot of water in them. I really, really like those Eucalyptus trees, but I agree they'd have to go.
About controlled burns - I remember driving over one mountain pass toward LA and seeing a sign "Angeles National Forest". I joked that it was more like Angeles National bushes. It's not like forest land. As some commenters on TUR wrote, some of those plant are good for keeping the soil in place - not sure if the grass alone can do it - so, if you burn them out, there will be more mudslides. (I don't know for sure.) Those golden hills seem always ready to burn except for in the springtime, April and May - thinking more of the Bay Area hills here perhaps - when they are a beautiful light green.
Great comment though. Failing all that, which WAS the case, send in the drones to any fire that gets halfway out of hand. Seems like a fun project, anyway...
A few details I know about is that there used to be "Ice plants" (they were called) within the freeway cloverleafs and embankments. They had no needles, but were cactus in nature in that the triangular cross-sectioned "leaves" had a lot of water in them. I really, really like those Eucalyptus trees, but I agree they'd have to go.
About controlled burns - I remember driving over one mountain pass toward LA and seeing a sign "Angeles National Forest". I joked that it was more like Angeles National bushes. It's not like forest land. As some commenters on TUR wrote, some of those plant are good for keeping the soil in place - not sure if the grass alone can do it - so, if you burn them out, there will be more mudslides. (I don't know for sure.) Those golden hills seem always ready to burn except for in the springtime, April and May - thinking more of the Bay Area hills here perhaps - when they are a beautiful light green.
Great comment though. Failing all that, which WAS the case, send in the drones to any fire that gets halfway out of hand. Seems like a fun project, anyway...
SafeNow
Saturday - January 18th 2025 11:45AM MST
PS
Mr. Moderator, thank you for asking if I was affected by the fires. I live down in Orange County, and so was not impacted. The greatest risk to my health and safety is a stress cardiomyopathy, i.e., a stress heart attack; it would be triggered by dealing with some incompetent California tradesman or medical โproviderโ or you name it.
To answer your curiosity about the USCGโs SAROPS (Search And Rescue Optimal Planning System): It was invented in 2007. There happened to be a triple-expertise guy who had worked in the SAR office for decades; besides being a maritime-rescue expert, he was an oceanographer, and a computer expert. Importantly, he basically invented it all by himself. It is incredibly complicated. For example, if some drunk guy falls off an ocean liner, you tell the software his height and weight, because if he is fat, he will float higher in the water, sort of like a raft, and so you look for him in a different place than if he were lean! Anyway, to translate the above to software for smart firewatching, the counterpart expertise would be to find a guy who is a wildfire fireman, and a meteorologist, and a computer expert. Good luck. So my guess is you pick a โteam.โ
What cuttermen wear in this era of EPIRBS (personal locator beacons) is new to my knowledge. My guess is that their use is only needed for people who are stationed on deck in a storm and so might be swept overboard. This would probably only be the watchstanders.
Mr. Moderator, thank you for asking if I was affected by the fires. I live down in Orange County, and so was not impacted. The greatest risk to my health and safety is a stress cardiomyopathy, i.e., a stress heart attack; it would be triggered by dealing with some incompetent California tradesman or medical โproviderโ or you name it.
To answer your curiosity about the USCGโs SAROPS (Search And Rescue Optimal Planning System): It was invented in 2007. There happened to be a triple-expertise guy who had worked in the SAR office for decades; besides being a maritime-rescue expert, he was an oceanographer, and a computer expert. Importantly, he basically invented it all by himself. It is incredibly complicated. For example, if some drunk guy falls off an ocean liner, you tell the software his height and weight, because if he is fat, he will float higher in the water, sort of like a raft, and so you look for him in a different place than if he were lean! Anyway, to translate the above to software for smart firewatching, the counterpart expertise would be to find a guy who is a wildfire fireman, and a meteorologist, and a computer expert. Good luck. So my guess is you pick a โteam.โ
What cuttermen wear in this era of EPIRBS (personal locator beacons) is new to my knowledge. My guess is that their use is only needed for people who are stationed on deck in a storm and so might be swept overboard. This would probably only be the watchstanders.
M
Saturday - January 18th 2025 6:01AM MST
PS
Adam re: using prison labor to clear out fuel.
It's probably not done because it looks bad. People got upset about the "chain gang" doing things like cleaning up the highways, so I think they've stopped or cut down on it.
Prison labor for manufacturing is much less publicly visible, so they've switched to that. I guess it's also more or less competitive with manufacturing in China since they're probably paying about the same.
Likewise using prisoners for fighting fires is probably done because it's harder for bleeding hearts to film them.
Adam re: using prison labor to clear out fuel.
It's probably not done because it looks bad. People got upset about the "chain gang" doing things like cleaning up the highways, so I think they've stopped or cut down on it.
Prison labor for manufacturing is much less publicly visible, so they've switched to that. I guess it's also more or less competitive with manufacturing in China since they're probably paying about the same.
Likewise using prisoners for fighting fires is probably done because it's harder for bleeding hearts to film them.
Adam Smith
Friday - January 17th 2025 11:18PM MST
PS: Good evening, gentlemen,
๐ป๐๐ ๐ก๐๐๐ฆ ๐ค๐๐ ๐๐๐๐...
Thank you, Achmed, for the run down on the seven videos that are almost the same video seven times. Hell, three of 'em start with the same phrase. I guess these stations all got the memo.
Anyway...
Land management and stewardship is an ongoing process. You have to clear the debris (the fuel that feeds these fires) before the fire starts. (In this case, on an unusually windy night.) You cannot simply wait until the SHTF and then impotently try to save some structures while otherwise waiting for the fire to burn itself out.
There is obviously a better way than what they are currently doing. (And it does not rely on high tech gadgetry trying to suppress fires after they happen. Well, maybe a little of that but under my plan that would be much easier to do.)
My solution to this problem is labor intensive and a little bit expensive. But that's ok, because the way they're currently doing things is also labor intensive, enormously expensive and very dangerous and destructive. It is also hugely detrimental to the forest itself as well as the creatures that make their home there.
https://i.ibb.co/yqDqDwZ/Managed-Forest.png
https://i.ibb.co/7C9nScv/Bootleg-Fire.jpg
This is not an unknown science. It really isn't difficult to prepare forests to withstand extreme fire by removing brush and small and unhealthy trees, and then conducting controlled burns. My plan involves composting and methane digesting. It's not actually my plan but it is simple and effective...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1DiNNZqkN3c
My plan in a nutshell:
โข Take all the dead wood, shrubbery, and such and some of the small trees and debris and compost it and feed some of it into methane digesters. (This is what real green/renewable energy technology would look like. Someone get Greta on the line.)
โข Mercilessly genocide the Eucalyptus trees. They are not native to California. They are in fact a dangerous invasive species. Eucalyptus trees burn hot because they contain high levels of natural oils in their leaves and bark, which readily vaporize when heated, creating a highly flammable gas that contributes to intense heat. They are a fire hazard and they simply do not belong there.
โข Controlled burns are essential to this plan. If the forest is maintained properly, the fire cannot get out of control because there won't be much fuel to feed these mega-fires.
โข California needs better water management. There is no reason that hydrants were dry and that the Santa Ynez Reservoir was empty. Redundancy is needed in the system. This is obviously a huge failure caused by the competence crisis. The water situation needs to be fixed if California is going to continue to sustain such a large population.
That's pretty much it. It's not difficult. It is also much safer for the workers to go in and clear debris, dead wood and shrubbery, and run it through the wood chippers to make mulch and methane than it is to try in vain to beat down blazing hot fires that you cannot control. As an added bonus, if the forests are maintained properly the mudslides won't be as horrible when mudslide season comes.
Also, fire retardant is not healthy for people, animals or the environment. With proper stewardship there will be little need for fire retardant.
--------
Fun Fact: Much of the labor California uses to suppress these fires is prison labor. These guys are paid slave wages to do a highly dangerous job (smoke inhalation much?) and many of them have little to no training. This is not a recipe for success.
It would be much safer and healthier to use this prison labor to clean the dead and dying trees and shrubs and otherwise maintain the forest than to continue down this ineffective path.
--------
I'm sure there are a few more details to this plan, like replanting and pampering the fire resistant native species while genociding the eucalyptus and other undesirable plants. But there are professional foresters who know more about these sorts of details. Every region is different and local foresters would know these subtle differences and characteristics.
I'm sure a plan of this nature, if implemented, would be better for the forests, safer for everyone involved, less damaging to the environment, and less expensive all around.
Unfortunately, sensible solutions never seem to happen here in clown world. So, I imagine that California will keep paying overly expensive box checking DEI retards and other useless bureaucrats to do nothing useful and they will keep having these horribly destructive fires on a regular recurring basis.
So glad I don't live there.
Cheers! โฎ๏ธ
๐ป๐๐ ๐ก๐๐๐ฆ ๐ค๐๐ ๐๐๐๐...
Thank you, Achmed, for the run down on the seven videos that are almost the same video seven times. Hell, three of 'em start with the same phrase. I guess these stations all got the memo.
Anyway...
Land management and stewardship is an ongoing process. You have to clear the debris (the fuel that feeds these fires) before the fire starts. (In this case, on an unusually windy night.) You cannot simply wait until the SHTF and then impotently try to save some structures while otherwise waiting for the fire to burn itself out.
There is obviously a better way than what they are currently doing. (And it does not rely on high tech gadgetry trying to suppress fires after they happen. Well, maybe a little of that but under my plan that would be much easier to do.)
My solution to this problem is labor intensive and a little bit expensive. But that's ok, because the way they're currently doing things is also labor intensive, enormously expensive and very dangerous and destructive. It is also hugely detrimental to the forest itself as well as the creatures that make their home there.
https://i.ibb.co/yqDqDwZ/Managed-Forest.png
https://i.ibb.co/7C9nScv/Bootleg-Fire.jpg
This is not an unknown science. It really isn't difficult to prepare forests to withstand extreme fire by removing brush and small and unhealthy trees, and then conducting controlled burns. My plan involves composting and methane digesting. It's not actually my plan but it is simple and effective...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1DiNNZqkN3c
My plan in a nutshell:
โข Take all the dead wood, shrubbery, and such and some of the small trees and debris and compost it and feed some of it into methane digesters. (This is what real green/renewable energy technology would look like. Someone get Greta on the line.)
โข Mercilessly genocide the Eucalyptus trees. They are not native to California. They are in fact a dangerous invasive species. Eucalyptus trees burn hot because they contain high levels of natural oils in their leaves and bark, which readily vaporize when heated, creating a highly flammable gas that contributes to intense heat. They are a fire hazard and they simply do not belong there.
โข Controlled burns are essential to this plan. If the forest is maintained properly, the fire cannot get out of control because there won't be much fuel to feed these mega-fires.
โข California needs better water management. There is no reason that hydrants were dry and that the Santa Ynez Reservoir was empty. Redundancy is needed in the system. This is obviously a huge failure caused by the competence crisis. The water situation needs to be fixed if California is going to continue to sustain such a large population.
That's pretty much it. It's not difficult. It is also much safer for the workers to go in and clear debris, dead wood and shrubbery, and run it through the wood chippers to make mulch and methane than it is to try in vain to beat down blazing hot fires that you cannot control. As an added bonus, if the forests are maintained properly the mudslides won't be as horrible when mudslide season comes.
Also, fire retardant is not healthy for people, animals or the environment. With proper stewardship there will be little need for fire retardant.
--------
Fun Fact: Much of the labor California uses to suppress these fires is prison labor. These guys are paid slave wages to do a highly dangerous job (smoke inhalation much?) and many of them have little to no training. This is not a recipe for success.
It would be much safer and healthier to use this prison labor to clean the dead and dying trees and shrubs and otherwise maintain the forest than to continue down this ineffective path.
--------
I'm sure there are a few more details to this plan, like replanting and pampering the fire resistant native species while genociding the eucalyptus and other undesirable plants. But there are professional foresters who know more about these sorts of details. Every region is different and local foresters would know these subtle differences and characteristics.
I'm sure a plan of this nature, if implemented, would be better for the forests, safer for everyone involved, less damaging to the environment, and less expensive all around.
Unfortunately, sensible solutions never seem to happen here in clown world. So, I imagine that California will keep paying overly expensive box checking DEI retards and other useless bureaucrats to do nothing useful and they will keep having these horribly destructive fires on a regular recurring basis.
So glad I don't live there.
Cheers! โฎ๏ธ
Moderator
Friday - January 17th 2025 8:48PM MST
PS: Let me ask you, SafeNow, if that system, or any system was used to look for a man (or woman!) overboard while you were on a Coast Guard ship?
I would assume deck hands (I don't know the terminology) or everyone onboard could have a tracker beacon on nowadays, sending out Lat/Long coordinates from a GPS receiver.
I would assume deck hands (I don't know the terminology) or everyone onboard could have a tracker beacon on nowadays, sending out Lat/Long coordinates from a GPS receiver.
Moderator
Friday - January 17th 2025 8:45PM MST
PS: Hello SafeNow. It might need a pretty sophisticated image processing system, but even tracking masses of embers could be done. Yes, for the wind to be determined, the gyros and such would have to be pretty good. Actual track per GPS can be compared to heading and airspeed to get wind, as it is on airplanes with the right stuff in the panel.
Good example with that Santa Rosa fire. Could this automated stuff do better? If not, could controllers not use on-board cameras to steer the drone. I had assumed autonomy as the main mode, but that need not be the case.
I remember you are in southern Cal somewhere, SafeNow. Was your place in any danger?
Good example with that Santa Rosa fire. Could this automated stuff do better? If not, could controllers not use on-board cameras to steer the drone. I had assumed autonomy as the main mode, but that need not be the case.
I remember you are in southern Cal somewhere, SafeNow. Was your place in any danger?
Moderator
Friday - January 17th 2025 8:40PM MST
PS: Let me do this review, Adam:
1) Great comment, first of all. All 4 of the ones in the picture are overweight enough to where they'd have a tough time pulling their own weight out of a burning house, much less anyone else. May as well stay at the station. Hopefully everyone in their range has go a non-flammable house, car yard, etc.
2) Well the all-White female shift (not the whole lot of employees there in that Palm Beach firehouse) looked to be in a lot better shape! Of course, Kelsey says this is what she'd wanted to do, but I'm guessing she wants to be a model. She had that "humble brag" about "I'm always the smallest and the lightest...". Yeah, we know you're hot. I hope nothing else got hot during that one shift besides the male TV viewers.
3) Again, Lydia, the hottest, gets to speak the most. However, she about started to cry when talking about "we've come a very far way". I don't know if I'd want someone that emotional coming on the call. Maybe she could give me mouth-to-mouth... so, there's that ...
4) Hmmm, why no comments for some of these?
5) About 50% of the 9 comments think it's a joke, and the others are "supportive".
6) Same old..
7) "You can have an entire company of women performing to the same level...". How do you now that until there's a fire?
OK, enough. Clown country has spoken.
1) Great comment, first of all. All 4 of the ones in the picture are overweight enough to where they'd have a tough time pulling their own weight out of a burning house, much less anyone else. May as well stay at the station. Hopefully everyone in their range has go a non-flammable house, car yard, etc.
2) Well the all-White female shift (not the whole lot of employees there in that Palm Beach firehouse) looked to be in a lot better shape! Of course, Kelsey says this is what she'd wanted to do, but I'm guessing she wants to be a model. She had that "humble brag" about "I'm always the smallest and the lightest...". Yeah, we know you're hot. I hope nothing else got hot during that one shift besides the male TV viewers.
3) Again, Lydia, the hottest, gets to speak the most. However, she about started to cry when talking about "we've come a very far way". I don't know if I'd want someone that emotional coming on the call. Maybe she could give me mouth-to-mouth... so, there's that ...
4) Hmmm, why no comments for some of these?
5) About 50% of the 9 comments think it's a joke, and the others are "supportive".
6) Same old..
7) "You can have an entire company of women performing to the same level...". How do you now that until there's a fire?
OK, enough. Clown country has spoken.
SafeNow
Friday - January 17th 2025 7:31PM MST
PS
Superb idea, but donโt forget about embers. If a drone is really smart, it will think, hmm, which way was the wind blowing when a fire started hereโฆweโd better take a look at the potential secondary point, or even send a fire crew there. This was exactly the situation with the Santa Rosa fire, which jumped a wide freeway, surprising authorities, and the secondary fire if I recall correctly became the greater fire.
I stole this thought by analogizing from the new man-overboard software of the USCG. It thinks, hmmm, what were, over time, the relevant currents and winds, direction and force, and so where should the rescuers direct their efforts.
Superb idea, but donโt forget about embers. If a drone is really smart, it will think, hmm, which way was the wind blowing when a fire started hereโฆweโd better take a look at the potential secondary point, or even send a fire crew there. This was exactly the situation with the Santa Rosa fire, which jumped a wide freeway, surprising authorities, and the secondary fire if I recall correctly became the greater fire.
I stole this thought by analogizing from the new man-overboard software of the USCG. It thinks, hmmm, what were, over time, the relevant currents and winds, direction and force, and so where should the rescuers direct their efforts.
Adam Smith
Friday - January 17th 2025 1:47PM MST
PS: Don't give up now, Achmed!
We're finally getting to the good part.
But, yeah. I think it's fake.
But I don't know for sure.
It might be legit.(?)
Which would be hilarious.
โฎ๏ธ
We're finally getting to the good part.
But, yeah. I think it's fake.
But I don't know for sure.
It might be legit.(?)
Which would be hilarious.
โฎ๏ธ
Moderator
Friday - January 17th 2025 1:14PM MST
PS: I just watched the video from your 1st comment so far, Adam (gotta go), but please, please tell me that was fake! Otherwise, Peak Stupidity should just give up. The peak is too damn high!
Adam Smith
Friday - January 17th 2025 1:00PM MST
PS: I have a few more inspirational stories I'd like to share...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c72aXs7zR2o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yD9McbmR8Ik
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3w4vq3Z3N0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-APQ5mSd0A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG5KZv37mT8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Kqh9PHc5CI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5BX3-VQW1w
So Powerful! So Historic! โฎ๏ธ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c72aXs7zR2o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yD9McbmR8Ik
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3w4vq3Z3N0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-APQ5mSd0A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG5KZv37mT8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Kqh9PHc5CI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5BX3-VQW1w
So Powerful! So Historic! โฎ๏ธ
Adam Smith
Friday - January 17th 2025 12:31PM MST
PS: Good afternoon, everyone,
I think this whole LA fire thingy could have been avoided if only they had hired more diversity...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIA0TPyLDh8
โฎ๏ธ
I think this whole LA fire thingy could have been avoided if only they had hired more diversity...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIA0TPyLDh8
โฎ๏ธ
Moderator
Friday - January 17th 2025 8:41AM MST
PS: Steve Sailer is right there, I get the feeling he does watch some TV (though he said he doesn't have one), and so he's immersed in this thing. It might really have burned up his neighborhood even too, though I hope that threat has passed. (See, I don't know, because honestly the only news on these fires I've read is from Mr. Sailer and his commenters, haha!)
I'm glad he's given space for his commenters, including me, to write in though.
BTW, he's got other stuff on his stevesailer.net substack site. I have been tempted to join, but nah... last few posts have been mostly non-paywalled. I don't agree with his feeling that wokeness is over though.
Yes, these people, such as Mark Steyn, are honest when they write that, but yes, it's depressing. Most thought that their writing (such as VDare's) had finally taken hold with Trump's rise in '15. That's been nearly a full decade now, and what??
I will go to the BB now. That's hilarious, just from the headline!
I'm glad he's given space for his commenters, including me, to write in though.
BTW, he's got other stuff on his stevesailer.net substack site. I have been tempted to join, but nah... last few posts have been mostly non-paywalled. I don't agree with his feeling that wokeness is over though.
Yes, these people, such as Mark Steyn, are honest when they write that, but yes, it's depressing. Most thought that their writing (such as VDare's) had finally taken hold with Trump's rise in '15. That's been nearly a full decade now, and what??
I will go to the BB now. That's hilarious, just from the headline!
Moderator
Friday - January 17th 2025 8:36AM MST
PS: Re, competence at the sites for these missions/projects: Yeah, you'd have to pay LOW enough so that only competent White guys who love this kind of stuff would apply. Put any Black! and other D.I.E. hires in the office, answering (fake) phones or uptown in some office, far away from where White guys are trying to get cool stuff done.
Moderator
Friday - January 17th 2025 8:32AM MST
PS: "For sensing you probably want something with long loiter times rather than speed. Not to mention something that flies high, both for visibility and also it's harder to shoot at."
Hello, M. I may not have made it clear that, yes, I'm talking about 2 kinds of drones (assuming the remote sensing is done by drones - to me providing even more accuracy and constant access to the surface picture). Indeed, that's what you need for the observation drones. No need for speed. They can be high-aspect-ratio wing U-2 style loiterers, flying for perhaps a day or two. Even if they can't stay up that long, have 5 or 10 of them in a fleet. This money is peanuts compared to changes in the whole LA landscape or even $20,000 changes per house (that's still standing).
No large amount of fuel (or charge) needed for the suppression drones. If you've only got 100 or 200 gallons of water, I don't think you need to be there long. (I want to write something about the spray pattern and possible cool science behind that too!). For a small single-engine Cessna, going out 10 miles, staying 3 minutes, and coming back would use up 3-4 gallons.
Hello, M. I may not have made it clear that, yes, I'm talking about 2 kinds of drones (assuming the remote sensing is done by drones - to me providing even more accuracy and constant access to the surface picture). Indeed, that's what you need for the observation drones. No need for speed. They can be high-aspect-ratio wing U-2 style loiterers, flying for perhaps a day or two. Even if they can't stay up that long, have 5 or 10 of them in a fleet. This money is peanuts compared to changes in the whole LA landscape or even $20,000 changes per house (that's still standing).
No large amount of fuel (or charge) needed for the suppression drones. If you've only got 100 or 200 gallons of water, I don't think you need to be there long. (I want to write something about the spray pattern and possible cool science behind that too!). For a small single-engine Cessna, going out 10 miles, staying 3 minutes, and coming back would use up 3-4 gallons.
M
Friday - January 17th 2025 8:22AM MST
PS
On a different note, (I think) you said something about the "Big Mike" meme being people knowing it's not true, but using it for trolling.
Today: https://babylonbee.com/news/obama-to-divorce-michelle-after-discovering-shes-actually-a-woman
On a different note, (I think) you said something about the "Big Mike" meme being people knowing it's not true, but using it for trolling.
Today: https://babylonbee.com/news/obama-to-divorce-michelle-after-discovering-shes-actually-a-woman
M
Friday - January 17th 2025 8:19AM MST
PS
For sensing you probably want something with long loiter times rather than speed. Not to mention something that flies high, both for visibility and also it's harder to shoot at.
So a few larger UAVs with lots of cameras. Maybe electric, with solar panels on the upper wings (which will be long like gliders) for supplementing duration.
For actual putting out of fires they need to fly low so the retardant goes where it should. So more, smaller, quick to launch items, probably not with a large gas tank. You're going to be refilling the retardant, can refill fuel at the same time.
This does require competence at staffing the pads where the fire-fighting UAVs are. Which seems in short supply at the top in LA.
Fixing that seems like a pre-requisite for changing anything else unfortunately.
I think Sailer isn't posting much on this as it's repetitive. And somewhat demoralizing to realize how long it's been going on, and how little has changed. Until there's a big problem, and people wake up a little and say "What happened?"
At least for a little while.
Mark Steyn started posting "As I said twenty years ago" stuff on the immigration problem, then it just got depressing so he's switched to "As I said 10 years ago" stuff. Probably so he doesn't start posting "As I said 30 years ago" stuff, which is about due any day now.
For sensing you probably want something with long loiter times rather than speed. Not to mention something that flies high, both for visibility and also it's harder to shoot at.
So a few larger UAVs with lots of cameras. Maybe electric, with solar panels on the upper wings (which will be long like gliders) for supplementing duration.
For actual putting out of fires they need to fly low so the retardant goes where it should. So more, smaller, quick to launch items, probably not with a large gas tank. You're going to be refilling the retardant, can refill fuel at the same time.
This does require competence at staffing the pads where the fire-fighting UAVs are. Which seems in short supply at the top in LA.
Fixing that seems like a pre-requisite for changing anything else unfortunately.
I think Sailer isn't posting much on this as it's repetitive. And somewhat demoralizing to realize how long it's been going on, and how little has changed. Until there's a big problem, and people wake up a little and say "What happened?"
At least for a little while.
Mark Steyn started posting "As I said twenty years ago" stuff on the immigration problem, then it just got depressing so he's switched to "As I said 10 years ago" stuff. Probably so he doesn't start posting "As I said 30 years ago" stuff, which is about due any day now.
-- LA fires losses vs GDP --
Adam Smith wrote: "I've read of estimates as high as $300 billion in damages from the Los Angeles fires. That's almost like real money."
With the US GDP said to be at the cusp of $30 trillion:
Losses of 300-billion would be a clean 1%, one-time, "deadweight" loss on a national basis.
On a single-family basis, it'd be like a family with a household income of $75,000 a year being visited by Uncle Sam and a team of heavies to inform you that you that you ow an extra $750 that year (but not next year), a one-time loss of 1% of one year's income.
Restricting it to Southern California only, the regional GDP is said to be near $2 trillion, so a 300-billion-dollar one-time loss would be 15% of one-year's income.
These comparisons are not accurate in one important sense, because it's not income but assets that were lost. More realistic might be stretching that GDP over twenty years (to $40 trillion) or more. That would drop the the total-loss to under 1% even of Southern California regional GDP-over-time. Still considerable, but a lot less than the relative losses of a major recession or the Corona-Panic of 2020-2022.