Posted On: Tuesday - August 27th 2024 9:26AM MST
In Topics: Pundits Global Financial Stupidity Preppers and Prepping Economics
The following debate among these 4 well-known "respected"* financial figures is 2 hours long. It's entertainment for some of us, but please read my general review below before spending that time for not very much real elucidation on the subject. As with a lot of things, especially in these days of Peak Stupidity, if you want it done right, you've got to do it yourself. That'll be next post.
ZeroHedge and 2 advertisers, one for gold and one for bitcoin, of course, sponsored this discussion/debate/argument among 2 gold investment proponents and 2 bitcoin investment proponents. The former are Turkish born Jewish "Iranian-American (wheww!) Nouriel Roubini and the more well-known-to-me Peter Schiff (also Jewish, but actually American). The latter are one Anthony Scaramucci and a guy named Erik Voorhees.
The links here are all to wiki pages. I'll say here that, in my discussion below, I will remain unbiased as I was before reading these biographies (with the appropriate grains of salt due to wiki) just now. I've read and watched Peter Schiff before, having known his opinions for 20 years. Mr. Roubini and Mr. Scaramucci are names I recall from my time of reading ZeroHedge over a decade ago, but the names were almost all I remembered. I'd never heard of Eric Voorhees until now.
Let me introduce these 4, plus the narrator, one by one. Then, I'll discuss their personalities and ideologies as evidenced in this debate along with their general financial opinions. I'll then cover what discussion of gold v bitcoin there was among these guys not necessarily in order.
The moderator is (obviously "subcontinental-American" - no, why would you think he's a guy from the Yucatan or Baja?, no actually "sub-S. African"**) Ran Neuner of Crypto Banter. Well, this financial figure who's done very well for himself has obviously got a stake in seeing crypto currencies remain around, but he stayed completely neutral in this debate.
I swear I recall Nouriel Roubini being discussed favorably on ZH years back. That may have just been his having been right on some calls. That's all it takes for finance people to like someone. I will not be discussing Noureil Roubini favorably. To introduce him anyway here, he's a big academician and political advisor from way back, having attended the "best" of schools, worked for President Clinton for year, and advised the IMF and the World Bank. He has something in common with the other gold proponent, in that he predicted the '08 crash and is also a "Dr. Doom". (Now, I see why the ZH folks liked him.) His proposed solutions to our financial problems are as Statist as can be. In '09, he said the US Gov't should sieze and nationalize all the banks. As it's been with any doomer, he's been wrong a whole lot... so far. "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" and all that. The best move is not to play. ZH'ers never got that last part.
Peter Schiff, another financial doomer with also a proponent of personal and national fiscal responsibility, is very unlike Mr. Roubini. Mr. Schiff's Dad Irwin was a hard-core Libertarian (having run for office) and a serious Feral Income tax resistor. He remained in jail for something like the last decade of his life. Out of spite - I remember this - they would not let him go home for his last dying days, something his son Peter remains angry about.
I've watched videos by Mr. Schiff, including the famous compilation showing his prescience in calling out the financial BS in the lead up to the popping of the early-00's housing bubble. As a good Libertarian, he sees precious metals as currency that the fed can't screw with, hence a good thing.
I'd only heard the name of Anthony Scaramucci before this debate and my perusal of his wiki page. He's another finance big-wig. I think you just have to make a few smart or lucky big trades and get reasonably rich, and they you're the bomb to all the folks wanting to make make money off of money, i.e., get rich quick. Mr. Scaramucci has got SOME history, with a very amusing part involving his 10-day stint working in a high position for President Trump. I just have to paste this in:
On January 23, he told New York magazine: "the thing I have learned about these people in Washington is they have no money. So what happens when they have no fucking money is they write about what seat they are in and what the title is. Fucking congressmen act like that. They are fucking jackasses.I'm not there, so I'm not sure about much of that besides that they are fucking jackasses. Anthony Scaramucci, however, if not a jackass, has been very stupid regarding his country. He's been for gun control, for gay marriage, and he opposed Trump's anti-invasion proposals back in '15, and then after the falling out, took things that were personal against Trump to a political level. Scaramucci supported Zhou Bai Dien even. It's been unfortunate finding this out after watching the video, as you'll see that I enjoyed watching him as the most civil of debaters. This goes to show that a few smart/lucky financial moves may make one rich but not necessarily a bit smarter.
Erik Voorhees, as I suspected after watching the video, is a true Libertarian's Libertarian. He was involved in the New Hampshire Free State project as a young man nearly 15 years ago. He was involved in the blockchain/cryptocurrency idea early on after being introduced to it by a friend from his college days in Tacoma, Washington. He was involved at a very good time, and "cashed out" of his stake in Satoshi Dice, a crypto-gambling company he'd founded after only a year or two with $11 million. By "cashed out", his money was still in crypto, as he does really believe in the idea.
Mr. Voorhees attitude on Big Governments and money is exactly the opposite of Mr. Roubini's. This has not much to do with the gold v bitcoin debate, as Eric Voorhees naturally likes the idea of both as forms of currency that governments can's screw with.
Now, let's go around again with these guys and the 2 hour, 9 minute debate. I'll start from the gold guys, from our right to left, the moderator Ran Neuner's left to right.
On the right, I'll say right now that Mr. Roubini is simply the worst, by far, of these guys in his appearance in this, what for him, is an argument. He's a loud mouth know-it-all. He knows enough to discuss the various qualities of money, of which he thinks bitcoin is lacking. However, gold, bitcoin, or whatever, Roubini is a Statist Regime sycophant through and through. Oh, as for bitcoin, he can send money home to Israel just as "Swift"ly as Mr. Voorhees can send money, yes, using the US Gov't system. "Oh, but you can't send money to Russia that way? Sure, but that's an evil regime that jails its opponents..." He's not only a NeoCon, but a true Globalist. He had no problem with a CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency***), so you know, we wouldn't have competing crypto currencies and all...
When it came to what other assets besides gold he does like, in the name of fighting inflation, Roubini came across very elitist. His bringing up of land as an investment is not wrong. I am doing this. However, the average Joe Blow (like me) can't just have his finance guy take care of all this, with 20 properties, on whole a good deal. They get you coming and going (mostly going) and while holding - real estate cuts and property taxes. With other financial "instruments', the system gets you coming and going too. So, if bitcoin can keep up out of the clutches of governments and their taxes, that (AND some precious metals) is something Joe Blow CAN get into.
Both of the gold guys, unfortunately for a proper debate, seemed to spend too much time talking over the other guys. Peter Schiff was pretty bad, but Roubini was even worse. After this I wish he'd remained a rug merchant as his Dad had wanted him to be - I will not willingly read anything from him or watch or listen to him in the future.
Next. Peter Schiff is a stubborn guy. Though I agree with him regarding precious metals as real money, and I'm not so sure about crypto myself, I don't think he gave the other guys a good listen. He's not that old, but as per the only one of Mr. Scaramucci's personal arguments, he does come across as the old man on The Simpsons (he means Abe Simpson). He didn't even want to try to understand any of the concepts about crypto.
Since watching, I came across this gem of an anecdote off of Mr. Schiff's wiki page:
On January 19, 2020, Schiff claimed that his Bitcoin wallet got 'corrupted' and that he had therefore lost all the bitcoin he ever owned, through no fault of his own. "My wallet got corrupted somehow and my password is no longer valid. So now not only is my Bitcoin intrinsically worthless; it has no market value either. I knew owning Bitcoin was a bad idea, I just never realized it was this bad." This claim turned out to be false as later explained by Erik Voorhees, as he confirmed that he had, indeed, helped Schiff to set up his Bitcoin wallet, and wrote that Schiff "forgot (the) pw, and never recorded (his recovery) phrase". "If I gave him an ounce of gold and he dropped it on the sidewalk would he similarly condemn the precious metal as a foolish monetary system?Ha! and Ahaaa! That explains a lot. Oftentimes when we think men are debating things on principle, there may be something small (or big) personal thing behind it.
To our left some more, and directly to moderator Neuner's right, Anthony Scaramucci came across very well here. He talked calmly and didn't do too much of the interrupting. (Just as a guess, I'd say he talked 15% of the time, Mr. Voorhees talked only 5% of it, with Roubini at 45% and Schiff at 35%) Mr. Scaramucci would have been a better moderator than the moderator. Though pleasant and fair, Ran Neuner should have drawn the line at times to stop the loud instances of 3 people talking at once, occasionally all 4.
At one point, it was Mr. Scaramucci rather than the moderator who calmly asked "What would change your mind?" to the gold side guys. Each of them would not even consider thinking about it, while Mr. Scaramucci gave a great example of what it would take for he to change his mind, something Erik Voorhees agreed with.
About the only thing keeping me even more favorable toward Anthony Scaramucci (and this was BEFORE I read anything about him) is that he seems also very establishment-oriented. My take was that he's not a guy that thinks it's all going down, as the other 3 are. Thankfully, he's not a NeoCon and/or Gov't sychophant like Roubini.
Finally, Erik Voorhees was the most calm and least talkative there. He tried to make his points very simply, and he did not object to one of the 2 more loud-mouthed gold guys interrupting almost immediately. Though his points were good ones, it's important to try to head off arguments at the pass. I think Mr. Voorhees would have been better of claiming his time - "give me a minute please, to finish" - and providing more detail. Mr. Voorhees got rich quick from crypto-currencies, so of course he's got a vested interest in supporting them. Not only is it about keeping these currencies alive but also about proving he's not just one lucky bastard but more a smart and prescient one.
He came across well, especially in the arguments with Mr. Roubini over government control of currencies. That's a big ideological argument. As for the topic supposedly at hand, I note that Mr. Voorhees told the gold guys directly that he'd be very glad if gold became a more important currency too.
Well, that all was a long treatise on these 4 financial guys, but what about gold v bitcoin? Unfortunately, in that over 2 hour period, not enough of the nitty-gritty of it was discussed. The properties of money, ease of use, store of value, etc. were mentioned, but they weren't discussed properly, not enough to convince anyone of anything.
The confusion that took most of the time was the difference between bitcoin's use as a currency and its life as a vehicle for financial gains and gaming. For the latter purposes, one side would argue that the whole crypto deal is just the latest tulip bulb scam while the other that, sure, it's been bid up and down like crazy but it's more like the first few guys seeing oil bubble up through the ground and wondering what it could be used for.****
Oh, but you're cherry-picking your time scale. No, you are. How many people are in it for the gambling (they didn't use that word) vs for their use of it as a currency?***** There are 300 million users of (or speculators in) bitcoin, it was stated. Will that go up to most of the world's population or dive down when the "fad" is over?
There WAS some discussion on bitcoin's use as a currency, making transfers of money to anywhere in the world quick and easy. That was Erik Voorhees' main point. Mr. Roubini didn't like that the crypto-currencies could not be taxed - one must do one's duty and pay tax to the good people of the Government, Mr. Roubini argued - while Mr. Voorhee's rightly saw this as a good thing. In the meantime, I think Anthony Scaramucci doesn't have so much Libertarian, free-market ideology in him, but just figures bitcoin is doing well and here to stay, so go with it...
Again, Peter Schiff can't see, to paraphrase, how this made-up currency means anything, and if you lose the password... well, I see he knows about that! He made fun of that it can be "mined" on a computer - what is THAT all about? - without seeing that there is a parallel to the energy required to (actually) mine gold and silver out of the ground. Roubini says CBDCs are better, cause, the Government.
It went like that. Given short shrift was more actual discussion of the details. Could anyone break the blockchain? How do you know no one could? Is storing bitcoin safe? With all the speculation, will it eventually become steady in value and become store of value? What about competing cryptocurrencies to bitcoin? Erik Voorhees had no problem with that. Roubini figures that's rebellious and anti-Government. Peter Schiff thinks it's all junk. Anthony Scaramucci figures if one can make money on it, it can't be bad.
What about gold? There really wasn't much discussion on it, as one thing I think all 4 guys agree on is that gold is money. Some (2 out of 4) of them agree for practical investment reasons and the other 2 (Mr. Schiff and Mr. Voorhees) for ideological anti-Government control reasons.
Let me wrap this up. You may be entertained, but don't waste your time thinking this video will help you much. At the end, Moderator Neuner boasted that this was the biggest and best gold v bitcoin debate. NO! Unfortunately for those of us with not all the time in the world to waste, there were 4 supposed finance experts taking 2 hours on this, yet they did a poor job.
With the exception of Erik Voorhees (and Mr. Scaramucci would make a better moderator), I wouldn't want any of these guys back for another. The way this went, with the off-topic arguments, I'd think we'd learn more about gold v bitcoin from a debate between a mathematician and a coin collector.
So, leave it for Peak Stupidity, with no financial experts at all on staff, to do a hopefully better job in at least laying out the important arguments about each, gold and/or bitcoin, as forms of money. Hopefully, that'll be later tonight.
* 2 or 3 still are - I'll explain...
** I should have recognized that accent before reading his wiki page just now. I've always like the S. African accent.
*** This one took me a while to figure out too. I'd though it was some kind of marijuana at first.
**** I'd rather use gold or silver for this analogy, but they've been around so long in history that the discovery of them may be hard to describe.
***** I have a friend who did pretty well gambling in it, for a while. I think he's still ahead. He has the extra money to do so. I don't know - will ask - how much he has used it to buy and sell, though.
Comments:
Moderator
Thursday - August 29th 2024 7:53PM MST
PS: I've got all those calibers in some quantity, Possumman, and a few others. Still, I wish I'd gotten 3 x or 5 x as many, just based on inflation. Most of those purchases were made over 5 years ago.
Possumman
Wednesday - August 28th 2024 3:09PM MST
PS buy and hold 9mm ball and .223- and a several thousand .22 LR--and plenty of it-- when the SHTF it will be worth its weight in gold or bacon
Moderator
Tuesday - August 27th 2024 2:19PM MST
PS: Real discussion is coming, right here, Old Soldier. I hope and imagine you'll have something to say about it.
Moderator
Tuesday - August 27th 2024 2:18PM MST
PS: That's the problem I had with this debate, M. Peter Schiff may have said a thing or two about "it's just on a computer" or something, but they didn't get into this discussion about what if the SHTF and the internet's down, etc.
I plan to write a post later today on the actual issues. (Got it all in my head, but it's harder to write down.)
The thing is, 2 or maybe even 3 of these guys don't really see that SHTF scenario coming. Mr. Schiff does, and possibly Erik Voorhees does.
I plan to write a post later today on the actual issues. (Got it all in my head, but it's harder to write down.)
The thing is, 2 or maybe even 3 of these guys don't really see that SHTF scenario coming. Mr. Schiff does, and possibly Erik Voorhees does.
Old Soldier
Tuesday - August 27th 2024 12:04PM MST
PS
I appreciate the Gold versus Crypto debate more than you know. It's a debate that I've had with others often. Following the dollar's presumed collapse as a standard US currency, which presumably will happen sooner or later as the debt escalates to an unpayable point, another currency will emerge as the preferred medium of exchange for goods and services. I've tried to imagine what society will look like days, weeks and months after the Great Collapse and I imagine it will be nothing short of BRUTAL. I imagine that barter for food and services will be widespread as dollars will not be accepted as they are today.
I'd appreciate others imagining what the days and months will look like after the Great Collapse. It's hard to envision, for me, likely since I've never been through it like during the Great Depression.
"Unfortunately for those of us with not all the time in the world to waste, there were 4 supposed finance experts taking 2 hours on this, yet they did a poor job." That statement is so, so accurate for me since I'm always on the go. But I'm always fascinated by this topic (the Great Collapse) and would like to help my children prepare for it.
Would much appreciate more of these types of discussions...I'll find time, sans sleep, to watch the videos. Sleep is highly overrated anyway...
I appreciate the Gold versus Crypto debate more than you know. It's a debate that I've had with others often. Following the dollar's presumed collapse as a standard US currency, which presumably will happen sooner or later as the debt escalates to an unpayable point, another currency will emerge as the preferred medium of exchange for goods and services. I've tried to imagine what society will look like days, weeks and months after the Great Collapse and I imagine it will be nothing short of BRUTAL. I imagine that barter for food and services will be widespread as dollars will not be accepted as they are today.
I'd appreciate others imagining what the days and months will look like after the Great Collapse. It's hard to envision, for me, likely since I've never been through it like during the Great Depression.
"Unfortunately for those of us with not all the time in the world to waste, there were 4 supposed finance experts taking 2 hours on this, yet they did a poor job." That statement is so, so accurate for me since I'm always on the go. But I'm always fascinated by this topic (the Great Collapse) and would like to help my children prepare for it.
Would much appreciate more of these types of discussions...I'll find time, sans sleep, to watch the videos. Sleep is highly overrated anyway...
M
Tuesday - August 27th 2024 11:33AM MST
PS
Haven't listened to the debate. Maybe this came up.
If they're all thinking that it's going down the drain, why do they think the internet will continue to exist in its current form?
Without that, any cryptocurrency is more or less useless. Sure, you can bring your thumb drive with your wallet on it to the guy down the road who you want to trade with, but do you trust his computer to process the ledger?
Without communications, the ledger gets out of whack.
Gold at least has the virtue that you and the other guy can agree on a value for it in trade. No one else comes into the equation, now or later.
Haven't listened to the debate. Maybe this came up.
If they're all thinking that it's going down the drain, why do they think the internet will continue to exist in its current form?
Without that, any cryptocurrency is more or less useless. Sure, you can bring your thumb drive with your wallet on it to the guy down the road who you want to trade with, but do you trust his computer to process the ledger?
Without communications, the ledger gets out of whack.
Gold at least has the virtue that you and the other guy can agree on a value for it in trade. No one else comes into the equation, now or later.
Moderator
Tuesday - August 27th 2024 10:49AM MST
PS: Happy Tuesday to you too, Mr. Smith. Were you go get that flux-capacitor-powered time machine in operation, I would suggest one thing: I don't know how well your thumb drives would survive the trip back to 2024 in that DeLorean. Their transmissions are shoddy, or something.
So, I would hide each of the thumb drives back in '09 in what I figure are spots that won't be built on or flooded, or what-have-you, and pick them up when you get back here. Throw in some old nuts and bolts - wait, I hope you though of that in '09 - so you'll have something for a metal detector to home in on. Oh, and sandwich bags, for the rain... lots of sandwich bags.
Yeah, sorry about the theft of your "money". You brought up a good point with the waste heat from computing power. It's not always recoverable, but, it doesn't have to be all wasted energy either. In the next post I want to write about the equivalence between "mining" crypto and mining gold.
So, I would hide each of the thumb drives back in '09 in what I figure are spots that won't be built on or flooded, or what-have-you, and pick them up when you get back here. Throw in some old nuts and bolts - wait, I hope you though of that in '09 - so you'll have something for a metal detector to home in on. Oh, and sandwich bags, for the rain... lots of sandwich bags.
Yeah, sorry about the theft of your "money". You brought up a good point with the waste heat from computing power. It's not always recoverable, but, it doesn't have to be all wasted energy either. In the next post I want to write about the equivalence between "mining" crypto and mining gold.
Adam Smith
Tuesday - August 27th 2024 10:28AM MST
PS:Good afternoon, Achmed!
When I finally get off my lazy ass, and build my time machine, one of the stops I'm going to make is back in 2009. I'm going to buy up all the bitcoin I can at 10 cents a coin, and I'm going to put them securely on a very high quality thumb drive and then I'm going to make like 10 clones (dd if=/dev/bitcointhumbdrive of=/dev/copyofbitcointhumbdrive) of that thumb drive.
(As you know, I lost all 7½ of the litecoins that I "mined" because I left them in an online "wallet" where they could be taken from me. At the time they were stolen they were only worth about $4 per coin, so it wasn't a big deal. Today they are worth ~$63 per coin. So, it still isn't a big deal. I do, however, have the computer and the video card that I used to "mine" the coins. And because I did this in the winter, the extra heat from the "mining" rig helped heat the office. It also added about $20 bucks to the electric bill.)
So, yeah. I'd rather hold gold, silver, platinum, palladium, tools, land, guns, ammo, or even seeds than a digital (ephemeral?) currency that can be manipulated by the people who program the software that the shitcoin runs on...
https://www.investopedia.com/tech/history-bitcoin-hard-forks/
And to be honest, I really don't know who or what is really behind these shitcoins. It may be an ponzi scheme style experiment in CBDC's by a consortium of Rothschild central banks with the sole purpose of testing the waters and gaining a following by rewarding early investors and adopters.(?) I really don't know, but it does smell a bit like a typical ponzi scheme.
But if I could go back and buy up some coins for cheap and arbitrage them here in meatspace, well...
(Perhaps today is the day that I build that flux capacitor?)
Happy Tuesday! ☮️
When I finally get off my lazy ass, and build my time machine, one of the stops I'm going to make is back in 2009. I'm going to buy up all the bitcoin I can at 10 cents a coin, and I'm going to put them securely on a very high quality thumb drive and then I'm going to make like 10 clones (dd if=/dev/bitcointhumbdrive of=/dev/copyofbitcointhumbdrive) of that thumb drive.
(As you know, I lost all 7½ of the litecoins that I "mined" because I left them in an online "wallet" where they could be taken from me. At the time they were stolen they were only worth about $4 per coin, so it wasn't a big deal. Today they are worth ~$63 per coin. So, it still isn't a big deal. I do, however, have the computer and the video card that I used to "mine" the coins. And because I did this in the winter, the extra heat from the "mining" rig helped heat the office. It also added about $20 bucks to the electric bill.)
So, yeah. I'd rather hold gold, silver, platinum, palladium, tools, land, guns, ammo, or even seeds than a digital (ephemeral?) currency that can be manipulated by the people who program the software that the shitcoin runs on...
https://www.investopedia.com/tech/history-bitcoin-hard-forks/
And to be honest, I really don't know who or what is really behind these shitcoins. It may be an ponzi scheme style experiment in CBDC's by a consortium of Rothschild central banks with the sole purpose of testing the waters and gaining a following by rewarding early investors and adopters.(?) I really don't know, but it does smell a bit like a typical ponzi scheme.
But if I could go back and buy up some coins for cheap and arbitrage them here in meatspace, well...
(Perhaps today is the day that I build that flux capacitor?)
Happy Tuesday! ☮️