Posted On: Wednesday - July 31st 2024 6:03PM MST
In Topics: NONE
(Continued from 1st 15 minutes - - 2nd 15 minutes - - 3rd 15 minutes and 4th 15 minutes.)
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Tucker [01:00:14] Doesn't demographic change to be driven by immigration? Yeah. Scramble the for me a little bit. Yeah. So you're I'm 55. You're older than I am by bit. But we both are up in a country where, you know, it was white majority black minority and with some were from California and both of us. So there was always a Hispanic component. But but I think most Americans sort of thought of it as a white country with a black minority, a mistreated black minority. In some cases. That was true. But that's not the country that we're in right now. And it definitely is not the country we're going to be in in ten years, which is going to have a Hispanic majority, a white minority, and then a much, much, much smaller black minority. So I just wonder if the Hispanic majority is going to be that interested in Emmett Till.
Steve Sailer [01:01:00] Yeah. I mean, that's yeah, that's definitely. Possibility and and the.
Steve Sailer [01:01:10] The establishment is working hard on that to.
Steve Sailer [01:01:14] To.
Steve Sailer [01:01:15] Inculcate in the public schools that Emmett Till was the most important figure of the 20th century. They're they're working very hard to keep together the Democratic coalition of the fringes by pointing at these horrible white men who were the enemy.
Steve Sailer [01:01:37] And.
Steve Sailer [01:01:38] Who also have all the generational wealth. And keep your eye on the prize. Eyes on the prize.
Tucker [01:01:44] Which is other people's money.
Steve Sailer [01:01:46] Yeah, other people's money. It's it's white people's home equity, basically. And stocks of, you know, baby boomers are dying. They're leaving. They're they want to leave their property to their kids. This is a vast turnover of wealth. We need to get our our hands on some of this. Another question might.
Steve Sailer [01:02:07] Be.
Steve Sailer [01:02:08] You know, how how big is the African immigration going to going to be if you'll go to look at the border, there's all sorts of people showing up from Mauritania. Except. ] They're still way above. Reproduction rate in, in most of Africa. Right. And. It's not people know how to get out of Africa. Now you get a smartphone, it gives you only instructions and so forth. Clearly, you know, highly legitimate descendant of American slaves and Barack Obama not at all. But yeah, that's we're going to see.
Steve Sailer [01:04:09] We'll see that. I mean, American corporations, they want if, if they have to meet Dei quotas, they tend to prefer, immigrants for the jobs or people maybe who are raised by their white mothers or something like that.
Steve Sailer [01:04:27] So, we'll.
Steve Sailer [01:04:29] We'll see where where this all leads.
Tucker [01:04:31] Where does it all go politically? Or actually, let me just take a step back. You, became famous to the extent that you were famous in sort of a summer sort kind of way, 2016, for calling that election with some with some accuracy. But based on looking at the demographics like, tell us about your predictions. Yeah.
Steve Sailer [01:04:51] I mean, that's that's a kind of overstatement, but it's it's more like in 2000.
Steve Sailer [01:05:00] I became.
Steve Sailer [01:05:02] The most.
Steve Sailer [01:05:03] Outspoken critic of the new GOP orthodoxy as promulgated by Karl Rove, George W Bush's, Svengali. And Rove's theory was.
Steve Sailer [01:05:15] That what we.
Steve Sailer [01:05:17] Need, what the Republicans need, is to push through amnesty and much easier immigration. And that's what the Latino voters or future Latino voters will.
Steve Sailer [01:05:31] Will they'll love us.
Steve Sailer [01:05:33] For that, for bringing in fellow Latinos. And then they'll all switch to voting, Republican, especially for the Bush family, which.
Steve Sailer [01:05:46] You know, that.
Steve Sailer [01:05:47] Jeb's son, George Bush, is half Mexican. And so the future is the United States and Mexico demographically merged. The Bush dynasty of Wasps and Mexicans will carry on as the natural ruling class of.
Steve Sailer [01:06:07] Of.
Steve Sailer [01:06:08] Increasingly mestizo North America.
Steve Sailer [01:06:13] And that's that was, two implausible. But I kept asking.
Steve Sailer [01:06:18] Questions.
Steve Sailer [01:06:18] Like, do Max, do.
Steve Sailer [01:06:20] Latinos really care?
Steve Sailer [01:06:22] And that much about immigration policy? Are they are.
Steve Sailer [01:06:26] You sure they really want all their cousins from back home to be moving in.
Steve Sailer [01:06:30] With them?
Steve Sailer [01:06:32] The one closest Latino state is Florida. And do the Cubans in Florida really care about Mexicans? Illegal alien.
Steve Sailer [01:06:41] Mexicans? I haven't.
Steve Sailer [01:06:42] Noticed that.
Steve Sailer [01:06:43] And I kept saying, you know, an awful lot of.
Steve Sailer [01:06:48] The Latinos are in California and that's never going to go Republican.
Steve Sailer [01:06:51] Again.
Steve Sailer [01:06:52] And the others are in Texas in large numbers. And if that goes if that's up for play, then the Republican Party's in really big trouble.
Steve Sailer [01:07:01] So wouldn't.
Steve Sailer [01:07:02] It make more sense looking at the Electoral College map.
Steve Sailer [01:07:05] To go.
Steve Sailer [01:07:06] Well, look, there's all these Great Lakes states, the Rust Belt.
Steve Sailer [01:07:10] And one of the.
Steve Sailer [01:07:12] Things you see there is that the white working class isn't anywhere near as Republican as they are in the South, and they're actually really close in the Electoral College, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. Republican establishment kept going on with the, Hispanic, plan. That was the big 2013 audit that convinced Marco Rubio that we need, amnesty and so forth.
Steve Sailer [01:07:58] But I kept,
Steve Sailer [01:07:58] Saying.
Steve Sailer [01:07:59] Yeah, you know.
Steve Sailer [01:08:00] The way you win in the Electoral College is these is these Rust Belt states around.
Steve Sailer [01:08:05] The.
Tucker [01:08:06] Did Rove not see that?
Steve Sailer [01:08:10] He'd. I mean.
Steve Sailer [01:08:13] For his loyalty to the Bush dynasty. I really think George P Bush. Played a huge role in the Bush family's thinking that because Jeb had married into a Mexican family, that this gave the bushes out of all the wasp dynasties in the United States, the greatest chance to exploit. The immigration wave from Latin America and be the natural rulers.
Steve Sailer [01:08:47] Of, of a Mexican ized population. I mean.
Steve Sailer [01:08:53] George H.W. Bush had ten year old George Bush read the Declaration of.
Steve Sailer [01:08:58] Independence.
Steve Sailer [01:08:59] At the 1988 Republican convention, which was a big deal because because, the Democratic candidate had been unenthusiastic about the Pledge of Allegiance and so forth. So.
Steve Sailer [01:09:11] You know.
Steve Sailer [01:09:12] George H.W. was putting is what he called his little brown one up there on national television to the elbow.
Steve Sailer [01:09:19] Yeah.
Steve Sailer [01:09:19] To get that started.
Steve Sailer [01:09:21] So, so, yeah, it made sense to Rove. You know, you.
Tucker [01:09:26] Get the sense that the more you listen to Rove, that maybe he wasn't the genius. We were told he was.
Steve Sailer [01:09:32] Yeah. You know. Yeah. You want you want an.
Steve Sailer [01:09:37] Election and yeah, you got.
Steve Sailer [01:09:40] You want a couple.
Steve Sailer [01:09:40] Of elections for George W.
Steve Sailer [01:09:43] Bush? But. Yeah. Is he this.
Steve Sailer [01:09:48] Genius?
Steve Sailer [01:09:50] But, you know, the Republicans weren't didn't, you know.
Steve Sailer [01:09:54] Didn't have a whole lot of people who crunched numbers and spreadsheets. So in the first decade of this century, I spent a lot of time analyzing spreadsheets and so forth of election totals.
Steve Sailer [01:10:06] And going, you know, it looks like there's a different path.
Steve Sailer [01:10:09] Here, and it really runs through the north central region where white working class people vote about 50, 50 Republican and Democrat. And you can get that up to 55, 60%.
Steve Sailer [01:10:23] You know, you can you.
Steve Sailer [01:10:24] Can win a lot of electoral votes.
Steve Sailer [01:10:26] So did did Trump, read my 2000 article.
Steve Sailer [01:10:31] But what else was he going to do?
Steve Sailer [01:10:34] That was that was the one path to the presidency. You know. It almost worked again in 2020. Under pretty adverse circumstances.
Tucker [01:10:44] So will it work this time?
Steve Sailer [01:10:48] I don't know. I've got I've given up making predictions.
Steve Sailer [01:10:52] I mean, people people came along like Nate Silver, who just were so much more interested in predicting elections and worked so much harder at it. That was like.
Steve Sailer [01:11:04] And.
Steve Sailer [01:11:05] I don't have that gambling instinct that that Nate does. And, you know, I'm going to I'm going to retire from making predictions. And I don't see myself as a great forecaster of the future. What I try to be is a historian of the present and notice things that are happening right now.
Tucker [01:11:24] So what is happening with Hispanic voters. In Texas?
Steve Sailer [01:11:28] In Texas. It definitely seemed like the racial reckoning. 2020, when the when the Democrats. Went basically nuts over blacks. Alienated quite a few Texas, Latino Democrats. In California. What's clear, you know.
Tucker [01:11:57] Does even matter. I mean, California's not much of a democracy at this point.
Steve Sailer [01:12:00] Yeah. That's it. It doesn't matter. It's helpful in. Texas in that the Republican Republicans will basically lose the white House forever when Texas flips blue. The good news. In Texas is that. Basically they have a pretty. Have a pretty strong, loyal, steadfast Republican, white, population. A lot of the advantages of Texas are that they're not tied into guilt. They were a Confederate state, but they don't care about the they care about the Alamo. They've got this whole national narrative.
Steve Sailer [01:12:44] And it it helps.
Steve Sailer [01:12:46] Keep them together. And they provide strong leadership for Hispanics. And Hispanics are less.
Steve Sailer [01:12:54] You know.
Steve Sailer [01:12:55] Domineering than people we're talking.
Steve Sailer [01:12:58] About in the past.
Steve Sailer [01:12:59] They kind of look around at their upper middle class neighbors and go, okay, what do you do? You know, you're a Republican.
Steve Sailer [01:13:05] Okay.
Steve Sailer [01:13:06] That sounds pretty cool. I might be a Republican to California. You know, the upper middle class is is Democratic. So the Hispanics follow that lead. So I can't tell, you know, exactly where it will go.
Tucker [01:13:23] How does Trump change that? I mean. It feels anecdotally like a lot of Latin American immigrants like Trump. Yeah.
Steve Sailer [01:13:33] I mean, what would,
Steve Sailer [01:13:34] Trump has done as he's taken the appeal of the Republican Party? Downscale compared to, say, Mitt Romney?
Steve Sailer [01:13:45] Mitt did a pretty good job of holding on to the suburban upper middle class, the frequent flier population. Corporate executives and things like that.
Steve Sailer [01:13:56] They feel at one with him. You know, Trump.
Steve Sailer [01:13:59] Is picking up working class people of all races.
Steve Sailer [01:14:04] That's good. But, you know, it's it.
Steve Sailer [01:14:06] Also is kind of taking, the Republican Party down scale intellectually.
Steve Sailer [01:14:13] You know, you're getting.
Steve Sailer [01:14:14] More dumb conspiracy theories out of Republicans, etc..
Steve Sailer [01:14:21] You know, it's a if if.
Steve Sailer [01:14:24] Can the Republicans keep some competent, higher brow people.
Steve Sailer [01:14:30] Around? You know, that's another question. What do you think? Well, I mean, a big a big.
Steve Sailer [01:14:37] Question is how much is this? Totally a.
Steve Sailer [01:14:42] A a Trump's personality. I mean, you know, 2020, 20.
Steve Sailer [01:14:49] 24 look like Ron DeSantis had like, studied Trump and said, okay, Trump's got some interesting new ideas and post Romney ideas.
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