Hail To You on America's Demographic National Crisis

Posted On: Monday - July 17th 2023 7:19AM MST
In Topics: 
  Pundits  The Future

Peak Stupidity commenter, and lately returning (backsliding?) Unz Review commenter E.H. Hail became well known to this blog as an early-on stalwart anti-Corona-Panicker over 3 years ago. His Hail To You blog featured a series of 15, maybe a few more, data-based articles against the Kung Lue PanicFest during the worst of that period. We have linked to him before, but one would be better off going to his site to find the Kung Flu stuff.

He's written about more than just that important subject though. We've linked to his posts about Ron DeSantis (which started with discussion of the PanicFest but branched out from there), and his discussions of the racial situation in America, some of that going back well over a decade. His latest is on this combination of population replacement and demography - an interesting, solid, long (give yourself an hour) post A study on America’s demographic-national crisis — Early-2020s birth-data by race; and developments in the White birth-share in the USA, 1920s to 2020s.

There are just a few basic easy-to-interpret graphs in Mr. Hail's article, with much discussion to go along with them. Americans don't seem aren't allowed to care very much, but the numbers - births to White mothers and births to 2 White parents have gone down drastically. We're talking 50% and 45% respectively, as of this year.

Rather than given any opinion here, I'll ask the PS reader to check out Mr. Hail's article and comment section. I'll point out 3 more things here though.

1) OK, this is a tiny bit of discussion: It's interesting that the graphs of White population proportion in the article show 5 fairly distinct phases over the last ~75 years.

2) We didn't do any numerical analysis - there are only 2 graphs in the 3 posts - but Peak Stupidity had a series of 3 posts a year into our blog life (November of '17) called Western World committing demographic sooeee-cide. - See Part 1 - - Part 2 - Snowflake Girls, and Part 3.

3) The Instapundit Glenn Harlan Reynolds just wrote an article 3 days back about decreasing birthrates around the world - Free Will, Children, and the Great Filter. He didn't seem to be too awfully worried about the mix of children being born. I think he should.

Tuesday - July 18th 2023 6:31PM MST


"(Hungary) has succeeded in recovering about +0.3 TFR-points. That is good, considering the sustained full-White TFR slide during the same period."

should read:

"(Hungary) has succeeded in recovering about +0.3 TFR-points. That is good, considering the sustained full-White TFR slide (...IN THE USA...) during the same period."


Full-White births in the USA:
-- in 2013 was ca. 1,950,000
-- in early 2020s: 1,650,000/year

And in relative terms:

Full-White births in the USA:
-- 2013: 49%
-- 2023: 44%?
Tuesday - July 18th 2023 6:20PM MST

- What helped Hungary recover +0.3 TFR-points in past few years? -

Mr. Kief says he thinks that "at least fifty percent of (Hungary's TFR) increase due to economic growth"

It's possible, but eyeballing a GDP-growth graph for the 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s -vs.- the TFR rise/fall data for the same period, there's no strong correlation I see.

Weak TFR in strong-growth period of late 1990s and 2000s. Late-2010s GDP-growth not especially strong but TFR makes modest-but-clear gains.
Tuesday - July 18th 2023 6:07PM MST

Alarmist wrote:

"These are problems that take generations to sort out. Hungary is a good start."

The Orban pro-natalist policies have, I presume, been expensive to the government but have succeeded in recovering about +0.3 TFR-points. That is good, considering the sustained full-White TFR slide during the same period. But considering that Hungary started started so low, they are still not quite in robust shape after a decade's pro-natalist spending and campaign.

-- 1998-2013: Hungary was stuck at ca 1.25 to 1.3 TFR

-- 2020s so far: Hungary is stable at 1.5 to 1.6 TFR.

(God let it be that the gains in Hungary are for White-Europeans and not for the professional-thieves and vagrants-by-choice known as the Roma.)
Tuesday - July 18th 2023 5:48PM MST

PetetrIke says: "we were propagandized non-stop about "over population." And then all the foreigners started showing up. Started early in NYC with the Puerto Ricans."

Did anyone ever figure out when Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's Puerto Rican ancestors first arrived?
Tuesday - July 18th 2023 5:46PM MST

Mr. B says:

"It’s not a crisis to the elites, because they’re engineering it."

That's about right. But just what the 'it' will morph into, that gets more complicated. The 'it' is a Frankenstein-monster.
Tuesday - July 18th 2023 12:51PM MST
Yes, a "managed decline" back to a smaller population would be great, assuming America still had a 90% white population. Hey, I remember the America of the 1970s, at about 220M average for that decade, and it was great. We are now at 330M (so they say, but I assume it's 10-20M more given illegals), and it's not so great. In fact, it stinks.

Less is more, when it comes to population. Side note: in the not so populated 1970s we were propagandized non-stop about "over population." And then all the foreigners started showing up. Started early in NYC with the Puerto Ricans.

BTW, according to a recent article on Unz, Hungary is now letting in gobs and gogs of migrants, as is Poland. Usual suspects involved.

Tuesday - July 18th 2023 11:16AM MST
PS It’s not a crisis to the elites, because they’re engineering it. It’s the goal. As the English translation of the motto over at Severian’s Founding Questions blog has it: How irrevocably are we buggered.
The Alarmist
Tuesday - July 18th 2023 5:01AM MST

Immigration made the Roman Empire what it is today.

These are problems that take generations to sort out. Hungary is a good start. It’s not the first time that Hungary took the lead in a “immigration” problem facing Europe.
Dieter Kief
Tuesday - July 18th 2023 12:58AM MST
Hungary and Italy do make this Sailerist family founding support programs too. The success in Hungary is - - - definitley there, but on a .m.u.c.h. lesser scale, than many an enthusiast might have expected (reproduciton rate around 1.6 - up from 1.4 - - -at least fifty pecent of the increase due to economic growth, me'd think).
I like Giorgia Meloni, because she is down to earth and - - -people follow her politics in a basic and simple way.she not least supports: Catholicism (the miracle of Italy (some say: the most beautiful country on earth) is not least deeply rooted in the catholic - sensualism (Heinrich Heine remarked that over and over again: Italian Catholizism is the religion of sunshine, he put that, plus elegance culture, art - - - and- - - : Beauty (it's not only Monica Belluci and Sophia Loren - - -it's also the women in the streets or the cafés of - - -Parma let's say. - Go into the Carvallo Rosso restaurant in Parma at a Saturday evening in September, and you have it all on 100 square meters... And when you visit Parma's (huge & spacious) Monteverdi-monument in a public park the next day and - - - the - - -very stylish waitress from the evening before greets you en passant there with a heartwarming big fat smile - - -you'll be impressed too by everthing "Parmist",I'd guess.
Monday - July 17th 2023 6:48PM MST
PS: Mr. Kief, I am optimistic for the Japanese. The discussion about the pros and cons of a decreasing population WITHOUT a huge influx (and for the US, with some control of the portions of the population who need control) is a subject for another post.

I touched on that a bit in the following post, near the bottom:

On the decision/excuses of deliberately childless women - Part 2

Dieter Kief
Monday - July 17th 2023 4:21PM MST
The big difference is made by Japan. I'm interested in their model: Controlled degrwoth! - The Dansih model might soon look a bit like the Japanese one, since the Danish are cutting back on immigration.

What the racial politics in the US are concerned, I'm reluctant. You have 80% in some colleges goin'the LGBTQ-way, meaning: Mostly no kids. I don't see somebody able to turn this trend around. I mean: Could Peak Stupidity be the butterfly, that - - - by the movement of its wings - - - causes the desired changes. - I don't know.

Since Mr. Hail brought up the betting market: Would I bet on such a success? - Oh, uhh - - - I would for sure make an awful lot of money if I'd bet on PS - - -and win!
Monday - July 17th 2023 2:00PM MST
PS: Meant, *NO" influx..." not, "now". Damn editor! (Or lack thereof!)

Mr. Hail, I'm glad to help spread the word. I had thought I had a banner image from your site already on top of one of my previous posts, but I couldn't find one without text with it that would confuse things. I'll take care of this later though. I try to have an image with every post.

I see you are one of those conspiracy theorists too, Mr. Hail! There was no such conference - we were all just on a hunting trip - happened to be a lot of Stupidity researchers in one place, coincidentally - down in Georgia on one of the barrier islands. Those crackpots call this site "The Creature from Cumberland Island". (Great camping spot, BTW.)

As for our banner images, I don't know if you remember that we had to change it a year and a half ago. Nobody, even the best of our computer modeling experts, knew that the stupidity level could get even higher! Unprecedented. The models failed us, so we put in a fudge factor of 18.7.
Monday - July 17th 2023 1:54PM MST
PS: Mr. Kief, I am sorry you mentioned that one, haha. I know what you mean - obviously encouragement of family formation by Governments is better than what we have had, encouragement of dysgenic irresponsible birthing of more irresponsibles. However, some of the biggest family formation encouragement programs would involve the tearing down of existing programs.

As should be put in further posts her, a point that Mr. Hail did cover a bit in his article, were there now influx of newcomers to replace the people of all of our countries, this population dud would not be a problem. There wouldn't be demographic soo-eecide (sorry, joke comes from a very old TV show involving a pig named Arnold), and a new equilibrium with a smaller population, more resources per capita, and a better life for all will be reached. (Hey, why are you pointing your finger? No, I promise I'm not the one who blew up the Georgia Guidestones!)

Finally, go read the Instapundit's substack article, if you haven't. I don't agree with all of Glenn Reynolds' opinions, but I haven't found him to cheat on the facts ever. On this point you brought up, he doesn't think that these birth encouragement programs are doing much good, unfortunately. (It's somewhere in the 2nd half of the article.)
Monday - July 17th 2023 12:44PM MST

- Graphs and Peak Stupidity -

You suggest that graphs have never been used much on Peak Stupidity. Let me point out a rumor, going around lately, related the origins back in the 2010s of the venerable Institute for the Study of Peak Stupidity:

It is said that a collection of the world's foremost Stupidity-experts got in contact through back-channels and had come together, after years of tireless work, having crunched all the relevant numbers. At the appointed hour, they met in a clearing in the woods, all using various assumed-names to get past pro-Stupidity patrolmen along the perimeter. At the clearing, a lead-man, rumored to todays' Editor-in-Chief of this website, gave the command and the Stupidity-experts all jointly plotted their data on a graph -- "Eureka!" -- so was made their historic discovery that we were indeed now in, or near, the peak-Stupidity point. The groundbreaking graph produced by these men is the very top-banner in use here to this day.
Monday - July 17th 2023 12:40PM MST

Thank you for linking to this, which shows telltale signs in parts of its earliest forms being incubated right here in the Peak Stupidity comment-box.
Dieter Kief
Monday - July 17th 2023 12:11PM MST
Mod I just want to say: To describe a phenomenon does not make it go away. Put differently: It is no secret, that the white birth rates plummet. - As do the Aaian ones in Korea and Japan - - . - - If we look at places that do slightly (!!!) better white birthrate-wise - like Ireland, Denmark, Sweden, Iceland and France, we come into contact with the social state doing better there than elsewhere with regard to family-enablement via subsidized (sorry to mention this one, but - it's true!) rents for families with kids, special arrangements for women with kids in the workplace, more communal childcare ect. . . .
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