Estimation and Extrapolation on •Illegal •Indian •Immigration


Posted On: Saturday - December 10th 2022 8:37AM MST
In Topics: 
  Immigration Stupidity



On the story of •Illegal •Indian •Immigration, VDare's James Kirkpatrick has some details, a sob story excerpt, and more in A Variation On Punishment Migration—Eternal Victim Migration. On immigration in general, there are VDare writers, specifically (lately) "Federale", "Former Agent, "Washington Watcher II, and A.W. Morgan, who give lots of insider informative details on the many immigration routes and/or scams. (Note the pseudonyms, as it's not "nice" to do this reporting.). Then, the whole rest of VDare has articles with lots of numbers along with any kind of political information on the immigration invasion you could imagine.

You've got Steve Sailer out there noticing stuff and providing stats. Well, Peak Stupidity doesn't often have all the comprehensive information on this subject or others. (We tend to jump from stupidity to stupidity with the frequency of piece of iCrap.) Sometimes we do a few calculations. Often there's not the time, we don't have the source data, and I don't often trust some of it, especially the Social "data" that comes from polling.* Then, there are people whose "job" it is to do this. It's not mine

Therefore, this post is kind of an expanded reply to commenter Dieter Kief on the way this blogger does things. Mr. Kief wondered about my using only one anecdote or some small amount of observed information - or reported from trustworthy people in China, for example - to make a pronouncement on some issue. It's like this: Rather than "noticing" or "detailing", Peak Stupidity's thing is estimating and extrapolation.

I'm pretty good at estimation, I've found. No, I don't guess the number of pieces candy corn in the Ball jar right on the money***, but getting within 25% or so is no problem. I wish I could think of some very specific examples right now, but on serious matters, I can usually do pretty well: the size of a crowd, the amount of money that comes into some random business daily, the weather conditions - wind, ceiling, temperature, dew point, the area of a lot.

There are more accurate estimations, of course, such as the cost of materials for this residential add-on down the street. Knowing roughly how many 2 x 4's, 2 x 6's, sheets of plywood and drywall, bundles of shingles, how much hardware, etc., one can get a good idea. However, this is about estimation based on no specific details, just what I see with my eyes.

Extrapolation is another important thing. In lower Manhattan, my seeing thousands of Chinese people won't do for the immigration issue, and same for the number of well-dressed slim ladies in downtown Manhattan on obesity in America, or the number of Cuban restaurants in Miami for cuisine. You've got to know when you're seeing a big exception. I HAVE lived in different parts of this country, and I still do get around quite a bit. Where I live, for the things I extrapolate on, we are not any kind of exception.

One of those is the immigration question and the numbers. We are nothing special on that here. Hispanic people are not in every area of the community. If I think of which areas I've seen them in, and estimate how many people live in these areas, I can get a pretty good number to extrapolate to much of the rest of the country. (Plus there ARE good maps, so I can cheat check myself.) This is why I don't believe the 11 million.

It's more than just numbers estimations. Some of the anecdotes on this blog represent my gaining of information that I had no details about previously. An example is the massive hiring of Chinese illegal aliens by Chinese restaurants. In The China to King Buffet pipeline, I reported information from someone I know fairly well whose good friend is directly involved in this (as an owner of a large Chinese buffet place). He had lots of details.

Now, as for the extrapolation, there's no reason this type of thing would be only going on in my town (in fact, the guy told me otherwise). It's not likely that some type of corruption of the immigration system is just a one-off fluke. Well, there are - wait, here's that estimation again - I would have written "10's of thousands", and the web says 45,000 - Chinese restaurants in the country. In that 4 1/2 y/o post I gave the number 1/2 a million illegals in this business alone. Yeah, it's just an estimate based on number of employees - some, as the one in question have 20 people working at one time - others are family outfits with 3 or 4, some of them (illegal) Mexicans, so we don't want to count them twice, haha.

In the case of this illegal Chinese immigration work, I have another source that backed me up, just on the general goings-on, not the numbers.

Our post I went down to the crossroads ..., described how I again ran into something I hadn't had much idea about. This instance, with this •Indian guy at a rural gas station who had really no idea where he lived, was more speculative, I admit. I didn't ask him if he was an illegal alien, because I needed to use the bathroom without any trouble. Is this just one weird fluke though? Why would it be? In the lower-budget motel industry, I'd notice not just •Indian owners but the housekeeping staff too. Did they all come over on special visas? I wouldn't put that past the Potomac Regime's Great Replacement Program, mind you. I'm guessing, though, that many are illegally there, working for peanuts, as ordered up from the mother country by the motel owners. (As I wrote regarding the Chinese buffet crowd, these people are more organized that the stragglers out of Guatemala.)

No, of those •Indian •Illegal •Immigrants, I don't have the stats. How would one get those stats, when these people have gotten by the system, and nobody has the incentive to even ask them****? When it comes to the immigration invasion, I really don't think one can go wrong by estimating on the high side. Those estimates usually wind up being conservative!

Well, that's the way the Peak Stupidity blog rolls. You can't really make accurate and precise calculation based on some good data, when you're missing all the data from whole other portions of the problem.***** Noticing is good, but estimating and extrapolating help too ... and talking to trustworthy people who will give you the inside scoop.


* I really like the former blogger Audacious Epigone**, but on lots of his posts that discussed said surveys, I have no confidence that the poll questions get down to real straight answers. The problem is, I know, because I've been polled.

** I linked to The Unz Review there, as Ron Unz is really good about archiving writing that could easily otherwise be lost for good. However, VDare has an archive of lots of Audacious Epigone's posts here. (Also, the UR has lots and lots of comments. They are often informative and usually entertaining.)

*** My boy did with 2 different jars! I got worried for a bit he'd be the next Rainman (actually the Dustin Hoffman character, as "Rain Man" was his brother Raymond - Tom Cruise). We thought about a trip to Vegas, but then I threw some toothpicks on the floor, and all he came up with was "I dunno."

**** Yes, I probably should have asked the gas station clerk, in hindsight. Lots of people are pretty straight about things, and sometimes the reaction itself is all you need to know to answer the question.

***** This is very much the problem with even the most well-intentioned Climatologist's efforts at modeling the changing climate of the world.

Comments:
Sam J.
Tuesday - December 13th 2022 3:48AM MST
PS

"I would change the H-1B, etc. type visa to be a set amount, say 250,000"

I do believe that there is a such a thing as the perfect person doing the right thing, at the right time, making a huge change in history. Musk is an examole. Some say he didn't do all the stuff he is credited for and he is some deep State agent, but so far I have, looking hard, not been able to find any hard information proving this. I think it’s worth having 250,000 come and possibly making the country a lot better. Musk has, even if he is some sort of pozz, changed the world dramatically, and I believe in a good way. I’m for everything he’s done excepting the brain thing which freaks me out a little. But even that, his reasons for doing so make perfect sense if you believe, as I do, AI WILL take over. For good we hope, but it could all go very bad for all of us. His brain thing is a back up hail mary type research.
Moderator
Sunday - December 11th 2022 8:02PM MST
PS: I agree with nearly all your prescriptions Sam, except for "I would change the H-1B, etc. type visa to be a set amount, say 250,000 and companies would have to bid, ebay style, to get a slot." I'd say ZERO. Americans can and would do these jobs if the H-1B indentured servants weren't there to take the low pay and suck up to Big Biz for their green cards.

It' s just as in the Engr. or computer sci grad schools - people will tell you Americans aren't up for it. That's because they get cheap Chinese and Indian labor. Before that, say 30 years ago, Americans could and DID fill up the grad schools in these fields.

Yes, it could very well be 40 million.
Sam J.
Saturday - December 10th 2022 7:53PM MST
PS

"... This is why I don't believe the 11 million..."

Huge lie and can be proved. Back in Bush II administration when they started saying it was 11 million it was even then way more. During George Bush Jr.'s administration, the IRS did a computer search on just how many double or fake tax ID numbers were being used. I think it was 28 million. It could have been 30. I can't find a story link but I know it existed at one time. Now this is just the ones having income tax withheld. I expect it could easily be 40 million and 50 million actual wouldn't surprise me a bit.

Make me King for a day and I would deport every single one of them. I would change the H-1B, etc. type visa to be a set amount, say 250,000 and companies would have to bid, ebay style, to get a slot. That way if they really needed someone, they could get them if they were willing to pay. If not, hire Americans.

All the illegals deport as soon as possible and any who come back hard labor doing "permaculture" in the desert waste of the US. For all the immigrants, I would go back and see if any of them had ever become public charges. This means any welfare at all at any time. Any who did, I would deport.

There must be laws on the books from long ago making immigrants who are public charges liable to deportation. I expect we could get rid of 50 million or so like that. GNP would take a big hit but our quality of life would improve a lot. Then to add to this I would confiscate all the assets of the FED and any assets they lent to and put them all in our hands. So we would then, publically, own the economy.

And don't tell me we can't "possibly" deport this many people. I did the math on 100 million here,

https://www.anonymousconservative.com/blog/news-briefs-03-23-2022/#comment-388830

And it is also financially feasible based on alien costs. I used just how much was spent on illegal alien children's education, and in five years all of this would pay for itself. I suspect it would be much sooner, but they make you really dig for these kinds of statistics.

Of course none of this will likely happen, but it could. Let's not let them tell us it’s impossible because it is possible with the right people running things.
MBlanc46
Saturday - December 10th 2022 6:16PM MST
PS Those Who Rule Us have put out the “Y’all come!” sign. Why wouldn’t Indians take advantage of it?
Moderator
Saturday - December 10th 2022 10:03AM MST
PS: I appreciate Dieter's comment, though, they are not always on the same down-to-earh level as my reading (or my German literary knowledge - at least I've been to Geothe's house, if that helps!)

I 've seen a lot too, Alarmist. What you describe is the shady side of the still somehow legal side of it all. I know there's illegal corrupt dealings with immigration/customs on the illegal side with the Chinese, and I don't think those Patel-motel owners all do the paperwork that it requires go get enough of these different H-1B, etc. type visa for their demand.

I've also written here that visa overstayers are a major thing. Once you get to big masses of foreigners in certain places, there's no way to sort out who's who, or at least there's no will to.
The Alarmist
Saturday - December 10th 2022 9:21AM MST
PS

Don’t take Dieter’s comments too much to heart. He tends to traffic in the philosophical and hypothetical far more in the anecdotal and factual. That’s not meant to be a slur or insult; there’s a valid place for such things.

I’ll share an anecdote with some relevance: I occasionally take a direct flight from Frankfurt to Dallas, and at boarding there seems to be an entire small village of South Asians waiting to take their seats in economy class. Upon arrival in DFW, the flight is greeted by twenty or so wheel chairs, all attended by South Asians to push their new arrivals to the immigration lines. Most of the folks are the elder family of Indian H1B workers now installed in the DFW are to do the work that US employers claim Americans aren’t willing nor qualified to do (at the wages on offer). That last bit is the quiet part that nobody in the immigration racket are willing to say out loud.

I went to the Walmart in Las Colinas once, and I thought I was shopping in Bangalore. South Asians even outnumbered to local Chicanos and Latinos.

These are merely anecdotal observations, but similar scenes happen most days of the week; I have seen ithe airline scene on two airlines on multiple occasions to at least two American cities. In short, if there is any need for illegal South Asian immigration to the US, it’s only because unskilled Indian labour has figured out life in the US is far easier than places like Quatar. As for the “skilled” labour of the subcontinent, the immi lobby has totally figured out how to monetise it and milk it for all its worth.
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