Posted On: Saturday - June 4th 2022 8:58AM MST
In Topics:   Healthcare Stupidity  Kung Flu Stupidity
There was some good discussion on the Kung Flu death numbers under our Collective Soul song post a week back, initiated by commenter Dieter Kief's linking to a video interview of French-Canadian Denis Rancourt. (As I wrote there, if the commenters here want to just cut/paste their comments into the comments for this post, that would be fine and indeed helpful.*)
Peak Stupidity will revisit today the issue of "Excess Deaths" due, supposedly, to the Covid-one-niner. Besides a re-iteration of our old posts on the aging factor and my distrust for the numbers due to that, I will bring up other factors, including the biggest, which is the influence of the PanicFest itself on healthcare, as discussed by Mr. Rancourt in his video interview.
Due to my laziness and my trust for the accuracy of Ron Unz's facts here**, as highly opposed to his opinions, let me just paste in his quick sequence of yearly American death counts, the starting point of any discussion:
2014: 2,626,418Well, stable, OK. There are going to be increases as the population both increases AND ages pretty quickly. I wouldn't expect a straight 20,000 more yearly, as there are bad years and good years. Barring wars, those bad years for deaths are the times when there are bad strains of viruses around, like this one.
Notice that the numbers were relatively stable until the Covid outbreak, when they suddenly jumped by over 500,000 in 2020 and 600,000 in 2021.
Sure, though, the numbers look bad. The idea of looking at "excess deaths" is very simple. No matter what people normally die of on average, if 1/2 a million more people died in '20, it had to be from something. One may bring up that, hey, how come there were only a couple of hundred flu deaths this year when normally over a hundred thousand, so, BS on the Covid count. Yeah, but if over a hundred thousand deaths were actually the regular old flu, there are still 1/2 million more deaths anyway, which we'll just attribute to the Covid-19, because, well what else was it?
There IS more to it, though. A lot more was going on the last 2 years than just this virus, the biggest being the PanicFest DUE (purposefully, I'm sure) to this virus and the changes to healthcare practices from this PanicFest. We'll get to this, in due time...
Before discussing that, what had bothered me about these numbers, as seen on the graph above, for example, is that the accelerating average age of the American population did not seem to be taken into account. This - the alleged flat-lined (other than seasonality) "normal" death rate - bothered me enough to get me to download .xls files and do spreadsheet calculations. Believe you me, I have to be pretty damned bothered to do something extreme like this!***
The problem I saw was that the CDC wanted to use a 5 year average for this normal death rate. I wanted to see how it'd be if you take this aging into account better. Right about a year ago, in Hey, what's the deal with excess deaths, anyway?, I looked at the very simple idea, arithmetically, that if you take the numbers of Americans in different age brackets, and multiply them by the also-"normal" death rates at these ages, you should get this normal-year rate. It increases yearly, so long as there's not a big virus that year, haha. I came up with just over 100,000 "normal deaths" higher than what the '15-'19 average would have given for the year '19. In '20, people were that much older on average again, and health problems do not go up linearly with age, when you get on up there.
Now, after the writing of that first post, our Mortality Addendum has some important numbers that I'd missed. After all that calculation work, I realized that buried in notes under their graphs, the CDC had the yearly death numbers (such as Ron Unz's). There's were higher, but again, it was the trend that was not correctly accounting for aging.
There was discussion of the cause of the discrepancies in absolute yearly numbers in Back to the excess death count - Could it be infants and illegal aliens?. Those 2 factors are almost surely the culprit as:
a) I had interpreted the "1-5" year-old category as meaning from birth on. No, it doesn't work that way, as infant mortality is kept track of differently. This accounted for 20% of the discrepancy.
b) Illegal aliens easily explain the rest. They die. Their deaths go in the stats. Their existence in this country, as we just got done discussing this week, does not. Many will not be counted in the census due to worries about being noticed in the system (haha, not bloody likely though) or due to their lack of participation most of our society in general.
OK, well that was a longer summary by far than I had intended, on this first factor, the errors in the "normal" rate of death. Let's move on.
How about this vaccine? Well, first of all, none for me, thank you very much. As much as the risk vs. benefit from this vaccines sounds like the worst for any I've ever heard of (and it doesn't prevent you from getting the sickness!), I don't think deaths due to the vaccine itself are a large portion of these excess deaths. There is the initial 2-weeks-after-vax scam, a plain accounting/statistics scam, that Peak Stupidity learned of from blogger El Gato Malo ("The Bad Cat") and discussed here. Any problems, up to and including death, seen in a person vaccinated within 2 weeks, were chalked up to the disease, not the vaccine. Well, that's pretty bogus. El Gato Malo gave examples but did not have a good number for us to use here. All in all, I'd say vaccine deaths are not a big factor, so far, but not insignificant either.
Then, there are the factors that are only semi-related to the PanicFest that Mr. Steve Sailer has written dozens and more dozens of posts about ****- that would be the additional murders of (mostly) black people due to the retreat of the cops from their ghettos and then the increased traffic death rate as of late.
Regarding the 1st one, I don't know the answer to the question, was it really about the LOCKDOWNs and guys penned up inside playing video games who got free and wanted to play in real life, or was it just coincidental with the timing the George Floyd stupidity and ginned up riots and looting due to that? I will say that I disagree with Mr. Sailer's stated premise (as in the article linked-to below) that officials were just wrong about curtailing the policing. No, they were not wrong, but they were cowardly. They saw the black political scene and the worship of that worthless reprobate George Floyd, and they didn't have the guts to fight against the policies that they knew would result in more crime.
The 2nd factor is the driving deaths that have had a pretty big uptick over the last year and a half. I'll admit it right here - I enjoyed being able to drive on wide-open roads during that PanicFest era. I appreciated not having cars parking in the show-off lanes. However, not all can handle it so well, and when the (bad?) cats are away, the mice will play. This is definitely a factor of the increasing sloppiness of society, which started with the economic devastation arranged for America as part of the Covid panic.
I didn't find the quick numbers on iSteve posts just now, but I recall that each of them, the murders and the driving deaths, would amount at this point to a low 5 digit number. Let's say the total, even after more of this, amounts to 25,000 deaths. No matter what the cause, these are excess deaths compared to other years, are then not?
How about additional suicides and drug overdose deaths that were really deaths from despair? (That's a Steve Sailer-coined term, I think.) Maybe that's another 10 or 20 thousand? Maybe more?
(I didn't get the name of the Aussie guy doing the interview - at least he's not doing this while driving down the highway.)
Now, lets finally get to the points raised in the videos and other sources that Mr. Kief and Mr. Hail (more so on his blog) have raised. I believe this last part is the most important, as the numbers, though hard to arrive at accurately, must be the largest. Put it this way, many people have died in the last 2 years due to the PanicFest itself, not the Covid-19!
A majority of Americans do not live healthy lifestyles. Their diet (OK, OUR diet, it used to be) is probably the biggest factor in this.***** The healthcare industry has greatly expanded over the last few decades both due to the aging of Americans (as an average) and the unhealthiness. I may criticize the business end of American healthcare, as it IS a complete shitshow due to long-term government involvement in all aspects, but the technology that has been developed is still impressive. During this PanicFest we are barely over with now, 2 1/4 years later, lots of both the preventative care and the acute care were put on hold.
Thanks to the wisdom of our Founders, Federalism has meant that some locations panicked at lower levels than others. In the worst of places, say New York City, the Communist/Totalitarian impulses of government officials, along with Tower of Babel population there****** got lots of people killed. In others, say Florida, with a decent Constitution-understanding Governor, a more normal life of healthcare could occur. (That is especially important in Florida, where there are lots of old people for whom going to the doc is the entertainment for the day, at least until the Early Bird Special starts ...)
I would hazard a guess that in the best of areas, the PanicFest resulted in a 3 month curtailment of the entering of healthcare facilities for important procedures, while in the worst of areas it was well over a year. What happened during that time? Well, what didn't happen? I'm talking standard EKGs and heart stress tests for electrical and vascular heart problems, colonoscopies looking for emerging polyps, standard "board" blood draws to find out-of-the-ordinary ionic or molecular numbers that indicate possible organ problems, as far as preventative medicine that didn't happen. Then, as far as actual procedures that fix problems, stents didn't get put in, drugs (yeah, I know) were not prescribed, polyps were not cut out, or whatever else ya' gotta do... I don't want to even have to think about this stuff, but that's why those guys are doctors and I'm not.*******
How many Americans died earlier, with a much longer period of life lost than those FROM the Covid-19, due to the lack of both preventative care and the long wait, maybe too long, to get procedures done? People were used to a 1st-World medical system, but that quit for a while. There were plenty of political and monetary incentives - see Are Kung Flu death counts being goosed for insurance reasons? (After-the-fact spoiler alert: Of course. There was every incentive to do so.) - to log deaths as being FROM the Kung Flu. All you needed was some kind of symptoms and maybe a positive test by some point. They would all be "excess deaths", but more of them may have been from the PanicFest than the virus itself.
We don't know this ratio. All we know is the number of "excess deaths" that occurred in '20 and '21. Will someone be able to back out afterwards the deaths that were due to the suspension of 1st-World medical care for months to over a year? Do the people in authority WANT to know?
Let me paste in something from one of Mr. Hail's comments:
Early on, many people including me were trying to find signals of first-order Panic-induced deaths---those deaths caused by the Corona-Panic phenomenon, the most obvious example being non-treated heart-attacks by people terrified by Panic-pushing media to seek treatment. There was indication already there were more of those than genuine "Covid"-caused deaths, and it being just no-contest in quality-life-years-lost terms.All, I know is, the error in the baseline "normal death rate" - about 20% of the excess deaths, various changes to society over the last 2 years, meaning more murders and fatal car accidents - another 5%, deaths of despair - another 5% perhaps and some tens of thousands of vaccine deaths - another couple of percent, well that adds up. Then, the biggest factor, the early deaths due to lack of medical care, could have been much of the rest.
Panic-induced lost-life-years clearly exceed Wuhan-Coronavirus-induced lost life-years in the US population. The grim battles (or non-battles) over body-counting and death-coding often ignore(d) this bigger and far-less-sexy problem, the depressing grimness of deaths-of-despair or homicides and so on leading back to the victory by the Panic people in spring 2020 and their refusal to admit their mega-error. The full accounting requires a finesse that the politicized question will not allow.
Suffice it to say that Excess Death numbers don't necessarily mean what people seem to think it's obvious they mean - deaths FROM the Kung Flu.
Whewww! That was a long one. Time to get outside. Vitamin D, Bitchez!
* I can do it, of course, but I don't want to get involved in anything resembling spoofing - I will keep deleting the obvious duplicates that I see under the same post, of course.
** This comment is under his own article on The Unz Review touting his usual "The-Americans-Done-It!!" theory, which is, in the scheme of things, just not very important compared to how the virus was USED.
*** Actually, I used to be a numbers guy, but not in this way. I enjoyed doing this stuff however.
**** I think a good summary of one of the two factors, the increased number of murders, is in his 2nd-to-most-recent Taki Magazine article, It Seemed Like a Good Idea at the Time.
***** I could say the same about a lot of the world, even China. However, this blog is mostly about American stupidity, because we live here!
****** It didn't help early on that, due to PC/wokeness, crowds were encouraged to gather together to fight the xenophobic policies of not letting contagious sick people into the country. It was pretty hilarious - see Be Strong, Wuhan! - but then, I don't have to live there ...
******* It depresses me how the body can let us down in so many ways (yet it usually doesn't!) It wasn't the blood, guts, and cadavers that would have stopped me from going to Med School. In fact, my friend showed me his young lady cadaver (she was killed by lightning), and he was pretty enthralled with her ...