The 11 Million


Posted On: Friday - May 27th 2022 8:00PM MST
In Topics: 
  Immigration Stupidity  Music  The Dead


This is getting really old. The number - 11 million illegal aliens supposedly in this country - is old, and hearing the same number for the last 20 to 25 years is getting old. The blurb in the image above is taken from yet another very informative (VDare writer) Washington Watcher II article: The Great Replacement: Cat Out Of Bag, Democrats Frantic.

This is not on him. WWII was quoting "immigration squish" Congresswoman from New York Elise Stefanik's Facebook post* on preventing an amnesty.

11 million was a number supposedly calculated from a financial angle by some bank back in 2000 or so. Even then, they didn't know the number of illegal aliens in this country accurately. They are, after all, "undocumented", well often it's actually "fake documented". Since then 100,000s of thousands to well over a million come into this country across the southern border yearly, depending on who's President at the time. Do some go home? Sure, it's likely temporarily more than anything.

Then, there are lots of others, often Chinese, who come in via other points of entry, such as airports with corrupt customs/immigration officials - see The China to King Buffet pipeline. You will find illegal •Indians all over, some imported as convenience store employees down at the crossroads. Then, others of all ethnicities overstay visas. Without good exit controls, nobody goes looking for them.

With all this illegal entry having gone on steadily since the rectal extraction of that 11 million count, well, I can pull a number of illegal aliens in America out of my ass too. I decided to pull out the number 30 million. It's got to be a lot closer to the real number than 11 million.

I don't want to read anyone spouting off that stupid 20 year old number anymore. I might as well be getting that information from the 6:30 newscast on the CRT screen and getting polled about immigration via the telephone on the wall.

Now I don't mind hearing just "The Eleven", played in 11/8 time. (Yeah, we have featured this one before - the song gets going at 01:30 in. The sound seems way out of sync with the video.)



This was just over 54 years ago (!) at Columbia University in NY City. The Dead had only been playing for 3 years by that name so far.


* I wasn't about to go to the New York Times site or Facebook to find the original, per Washington Watcher II's link.

Comments:
Adam Smith
Tuesday - May 31st 2022 8:47AM MST
PS: Greetings, Everyone,

I can't seem to find Aaron's (in MVD) blog right now either...
Thought I had it in my bookmarks... Hmmm(?)...

“It seems like more of a desperado move to move to Paraguay vs. Uruguay.”

I'm under the impression that the Bush family (and Sun Myung Moon and some other oligarchs) bought up all that land in Paraguay not only because it is cheap ag-land but because it sits on one of the largest sources of fresh water in the world...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guarani_Aquifer

Moderator
Tuesday - May 31st 2022 6:42AM MST
PS: I will write back only to Alarmist right here, as I missed out on commenting for a full day or so, and I'd like to include these great comments (via copy/paste by you all if you would) in another thread under a 2nd post on the illegal immigrant count. (No, I don't think much of this paper at all, but I'll explain more ...)

Alarmist, I have been thinking about Uruguay for 10 years (before J. Derbyshire mentioned it, and honestly, I wish people of that stature in the writing world WOULDN'T write about it!) It's got good demographics (90% White - that'd be actual Spaniards, Germans, and Italians), beating out any other place in S. America (Central too, then Africa, of course, too!) on demographics by far!

It's a small place, with just over 3 million people in the size of a smaller US State. I really will go visit sometime, and I'll be glad to report back. Look up one "Aaron in MVD" - I'll see if I can find the site later - for a blog (kind of infrequent) by an American who lives down there.

BTW, I was under the impression that the Bush's and such had places in Paraguay. That is even more remote, but it doesn't have the good demographics. It seems like more of a desperado move to move to Paraguay vs. Uruguay.

The Alarmist
Monday - May 30th 2022 1:58PM MST
PS

Thanks, Mr. Hail.

FWIW, I tell my wife that if we have to flee The Continent for the US of A, we’ll fly to Mexico and walk across, which will save several years and thousands of dollars wasted in immi hell.

The more pragmatic part of me has started looking at small farms in Uruguay. Good enough for the Bush family, among many orher oligarch families, means good enough for me,
Hail
Monday - May 30th 2022 9:57AM MST
PS

Re: The Alarmist,

It occurs to me that the important thing about this "how many illegals" guessing-game is not the "stock" but the "flow." (This is where the 2017 Yale paper which Mr. Newman mentions interest in but disparages its methodology comes in useful, focus on flow and not stock.)

A portion of illegals are soft-amnestied-in every year, by one loophole or trick or another. A big one is the Anchor Baby phenomenon but it is not the only one.

The Fox News-promoted "Doctor Oz" candidacy for US Senate in Pennsylvania. It came out that his parents were illegal visa-overstayers from Turkey. He himself was an "anchor baby." What happened to Dr Oz's parents? I don't care to look into it, but I assumed their status was regularized; they were no longer classifiable as illegals after a few years once papers were in order, thanks to their son.

I've personally known a few people who did some version of this, and as much as one likes or dislikes individuals (it's better to try to like individuals, or mot associate with them), the practice of cheating the system rubs us NW-European types the wrong way. (Part of dealing with non-western foreigners is the realization that they really don't play by those rules.) It's not hard to find one of an army of "immigration lawyers" who specialize in wiggling someone through the idiot White Man's stupid rules and get them "in" more-or-less permanently for a large fee, with a promise of citizenship if they're well behaved.

There are shades of gray here. People do it, the flabby federal apparat cares little, a fat orange buffoon finally called it out but then did nothing (except tax cuts, a few hundred billion to Blacks for no reason, endless digital squabbles, and an insane flu-virus lockdown).

But, yes, the absolute number who are technically "sin papeles" at any snapshot moment in time is less useful to us than the flow of such people. The gray area is big enough, actually, that the whole legal/illegal distinction falls apart on close inspection. The day approaches when mainstream right-wing politics in the USA turns its back on that distinction. It's hard to judge the exact historical moment you're in when you're in it, but I think we may be there already, or at the cusp of it.

There was some loose-lipped white politician or commentator I think recently said there are a lot of U.S. citizens who are not really Americans, which is of course very true (and everyone knows it's true; try flying internationally and observe the people holding U.S. passports and what they're like). Many of these originated through one way or another as some variety of illegal, if not themselves personally than some intrepid illegal pioneer above them on the chain.

All this talk of 11 million vs 22 million vs your 40 million looks to be academic, so much navel-gazing, if "stock" is what we want to find, of interest more for "flow."

If there are now 70 million Hispanics in the USA, maybe 20 million are either illegal currently, of illegal origin (of any variety) but who were subsequently legalized, or children of illegals. Many of the rest are chain-migrants from those people. This means the majority of US-resident Hispanics likely originate directly or indirectly with illegal migration, but many are now voting citizens.

Oh, he one interview given by the mother of the Texas school shooter was entirely in Spanish. They say actor Matthew McCaughahay was born (1969) and raised in this town where the mass shooting happened, living there to age 11 in 1980. He doesn't seem the type to have been among a tiny White minority among an almost-all-Hispanic population, which suggests the town was largely White in the 1970s. But the school in 2022 with its born-2000s students is said to be 90% Hispanic. All the twenty-two deaths (shooter and 21 dead) apparently were Hispanics. What happened?
The Alarmist
Monday - May 30th 2022 7:03AM MST
PS

I’m sticking with the >40m I pulled out of my posterior...

https://www.bitchute.com/video/imXxlIRY1Ax0/
Hail
Sunday - May 29th 2022 7:41PM MST
PS

I have read most of the paper. That kind of writing (academic paper writing) doesn't usually lend to a clean read-through as other forms of writing do. With these kinds of papers, you expect them to get to a point and most often it just all flattens out, melting away like mush in the hand.

What are the policy, political, or cultural implications of their finding? Why is the wrong 11 million number so resilient? They say nothing of these things, but you'd better bet their equations are al triple-checked and working.

The paper creates a mathematical model based on "flows" (in and out) to estimate illegal immigrant "stock."

They claim to have done one million simulations using different parameters and the final is 16.2 million to 29.5 million, but of those outside that 95% confidence interval, far more are well above 30m (31m, 32, 33m) than under 16m (sharp fall off under 16m).

There is no US Census estimate for illegals by policy, by which census takers are legally banned from asking residence status. As you will recall one of the many Never Trump policies of 2020 was a refusal to ask a citizenship question, so they couldn't even ask that, and the US Census has no official number of citizens resident in the USA. Crazy-sounding but true.
Moderator
Sunday - May 29th 2022 4:03PM MST
PS: From the abstract:

"While our analysis delivers different results, we note that it is based on many assumptions. The most critical of these concern border apprehension rates and voluntary emigration rates of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. These rates are uncertain, especially in the 1990's and early 2000's, which is when-both based on our modeling and the very different survey data approach-the number of undocumented immigrants increases most significantly. Our results, while based on a number of assumptions and uncertainties, could help frame debates about policies whose consequences depend on the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States."

I'm not impressed with this type of method from the get-go. However, the whole paper is here:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6150478/

I believe I'll give it a read. I would appreciate it if you would too, Mr. Hail, if you have the time. I can write more on it, or paste in what you have to say.

Thanks!
Hail
Saturday - May 28th 2022 8:00PM MST
PS

A major study by Yale University in 2017 approached the question of illegal immigrants using a variety of statistical techniques. The goal was what good academics is supposed to be, trying to answer a relevant question "fresh," that is to say without assumptions or constraints. A data-analyst approach, not a political-hack or lazy-journalistic approach.

The team found that their various sources of demographic number-crunching put the numbers of illegals resident in the USA as of 2016 was between:

16 million to 29 million.

That's with 95% confidence. If the actual number is outside their 16m-29m range, their models suggest it's much more likely over 30m than under 15m, in other words the distribution was skewed in that direction. See the paper for the graph that makes this clear.

(The paper was by Fazel-Zarandi, Feinstein, and Kaplan [received: Oct 2017; published Sept 2018], "The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States: Estimates based on demographic modeling with data from 1990 to 2016").
Adam Smith
Saturday - May 28th 2022 4:44PM MST
PS: Good evening, gentlemen,

It's a well known fact that most (if not all) immigrants are better Americans than the people who were born here.
It would be wrong and bigoted to deny the 7 Billion pre-Americans their rightful place in Our Democracy™.
[/sarc]

https://genesiustimes.com/breaking-fbi-opens-investigation-into-the-upset-parents-of-uvalde-shooting-victims/

The Alarmist
Saturday - May 28th 2022 1:52PM MST
PS

I think it was 30m in 2006 or so, when Dubya tried to ram through his amnesty. Thank goodness for the Dittoheads, who melted down the Capitol Hill switchboard. We’ve come a long way since then, baby, so the assimilation of the 42m or so will likely go as smooth as butter.

Your moment of Bee Zen:

https://babylonbee.com/news/cdc-people-dirt-clintons-843-greater-risk-suicide
MBlanc46
Saturday - May 28th 2022 1:34PM MST
PS May of 1968: Very likely that was during the student takeover that spring. I applied to and was accepted for grad school at Columbia. However, the acceptance letter didn’t come until late August, long after I’d notified Chicago that I’d be coming.
MBlanc46
Saturday - May 28th 2022 7:53AM MST
PS This battle was lost decades ago. 1986 wouldn’t be a bad pick. The elites no longer need a First World labor force. They’ve got Asians to do the First World work. And, at least until they really get robots going, they need a lot of Third Worlders to do the menial work. And to provide house servants. So Asians and Third World labor migrants we’re going to get. What whites have to decide, and decide before too much more water goes over the dam, whether they’re going to try to defend a homeland for themselves, and, if so, how they’re going to do it.
Moderator
Saturday - May 28th 2022 6:58AM MST
PS: Thank you very much, Sam, for your estimations and your info. Regarding the "dependents", my friend worked for H&$ Block for a couple of tax seasons. He told me that illegal alien after illegal alien came in there with claims of 2 to 4 dependents, with SS#'s. They could have been back in Guatemala or made up out of whole cloth - the IRS paid out EIC money, the guys got their taxpayer funds right away, and H&R Block took their cut. Win/win/big-ass-loss.

Mr. Ganderson, they were a bunch of young guys then - Jerry without his beard even.
Sam J.
Friday - May 27th 2022 9:24PM MST
PS
I couldn’t find the story but I did find this.

Tax ID numbers open door wider for illegal immigrants

"...For tax purposes, the nine-digit number substitutes for a Social Security number, which illegal immigrants cannot legally obtain. The IRS number lets them pay taxes with no questions asked about their immigration status...."

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2002-04-15-0204150211-story.html

And how many of these are there?

"...According to the National Immigration Law Center, the most recent information (August 2012) indicated that there had been 21 million ITINs assigned to taxpayers and their dependents by the IRS.

ITINs assigned to illegal alien dependents from Mexico do NOT have to prove that they have ever set foot in the U.S., let alone that they are in the U.S. at the time of application.

Over 9 years and up to 2010, the IRS paid over $14.2 billion of American tax dollars in refunds to illegal aliens, for alleged dependents from whom no identification or residency documents were obtained, and from whom they received $0 in tax revenue.
..."

https://www.reaganbabe.com/national/itin-the-massive-tax-loophole-allowing-illegal-aliens-to-defraud-american-citizens/

It's a disgrace.
Ganderson
Friday - May 27th 2022 9:19PM MST
PS this was about two years before I first saw them in October 1970. Lots of energy!
Sam J.
Friday - May 27th 2022 9:06PM MST
PS

Even way back when they started saying it was 11 million it was even then way more. During George Bush Jr.'s administration the IRS did a computer search on just how many double or fake tax ID numbers were being used. I think it was 28 million. It could have been 30. I can't find a story link but I know it existed at one time. Now this is just the ones having income tax withheld. I bet there's at the very minimum 40 million illegals, and it would not surprise me a bit if it were many millions more.
WHAT SAY YOU? : (PLEASE NOTE: You must type capital PS as the 1st TWO characters in your comment body - for spam avoidance - or the comment will be lost!)
YOUR NAME
Comments