El Gato Malo on the 2-week vax statistics scam

Posted On: Thursday - February 10th 2022 9:57PM MST
In Topics: 
  Websites  Kung Flu Stupidity

(I remember un pequito Espanol from 1985 - he's The Bad Cat)

Peak Stupidity has never gotten deep into the numbers regarding the risk/benefit of the experimental Kung Flu vaccines. Our position is based on principle and based on our perspective, as obtained from years of being simply alive and aware. I'll quickly re- or re-re-state these two, in order.

1) I have been against the vaccine for myself simply based on the unConstitutional government edicts that have tried to make the shots mandatory. I've used the phrase "this is not the Black Death 2.0" before*, and even if it were the Black Death, we would not NEED the vaccine to be mandatory. Were I seeing 1 out of 25 people of my age expiring of this thing, even 1 in 50, I might be headed down to get the jab early in the morning to beat the line. It'd depend on MY calculations or feelings about risk vs. benefit. It'd be MY call.

2) Over the last 6 months, after seeing and hearing of multiple problems that people I know have had, I don't want the vaccine for that reason additionally.

I have not paid attention to all the stats and details simply due to my being very sure I will not be getting this experimental "treatment". However, if we're going to cover the last, but important piece of Totalitarianism that "our leaders" have extracted from this PanicFest, it's time to comment on this new revelation to me about more of the Establishment's lying with stats.

Peak Stupidity has been neglectful in not following up on too many of our (and iSteve's) commenters' suggestions for research on the numbers regarding the nasty and often deadly side effects and the efficacy, risk/benefit, respectively, of the vaccines. I thank Dieter Kief and others for all his suggestions. Mr. Kief has got me finally looking into to a great simple explanation about the quite important errors (likely purposefully) introduced in the data regarding whether the people behind the numbers are vaxxed or not for 2 weeks AFTER getting a shot. It's this comment by Hypnotoad666, right out in front of me as I read that iSteve comment thread, that got me finally over to Mr. Kief's recommended Bad Cat Substack blog.

This is a simple point that I'm sure many of us who suspect those healthcare "authorities" and the Lyin' Press of trying to scam gullible Americans via statistics have thought of. However El Gato Malo presents some simple numerical examples to show the scam errr, problem in his Jan 12th post. I won't paste parts of it, because the examples must be read together - it'll take just a few minutes to understand.

It's already obvious that counting those 2 weeks after vaccination as non-vaccinated, due to some lag time, is going to cause errors on the side of more non-vaccinated cases (and beyond cases, when it comes to that). Oh, I suppose this 2-week period is the norm used for this type of statistics, but as the Bad Cat notes, that's a problem when you don't have any true control group in an honest experiment.

The Bad Cat's examples are nothing but simple arithmetic based on an example of getting the Kung Flu at the same rate whether vaxxed or not. Why? That is, he wants to demonstrate the fake good efficacy rates that come purely out of the shift of the sample during that 2 week period.

For good numbers on vaccinated vs. un-vaccinated problems (cases, hospitalizations, and deaths), moving people from an actually vaccinated category to an official non-vaccinated one is a problem that is worse when you aren't talking about a 2 year study, but just a few months, as is the real case - El Gato uses only a 1 month period to show a near worst-case example of bogus numbers. The discrepancies would not be nearly so extreme were the data calculated over one year with that 2 week mis-attribution. (See the way the sample calculations are done in the examples to understand this.) However, Senor Gato's examples are pretty good based on the fact that the efficacy numbers for the vaccinations HAVE been determined only over a pretty short span. Well, they tell us you need a new one after a short while anyway, as you've got a new strain coming along, and the current vaccine can't handle the new one.

Now, one could name some variables, one each for the average rate of the vaxxed getting the virus and one for the unvaxxed. Another would be the time period of the determination of effectiveness, or lack thereof. Then, the percentage of people being vaccinated per time period would be another. You could plug and chug and see the effect of these. Great, but these are not really known and not constant over time either. That takes us to another even bigger factor.

How does one separate covid-style ill health effects from the vaccination itself vs. those that would happen to from an infection of the virus? What if those effects are the most intense during those first 2 weeks?

El Gato Malo shows us that even if these vaccines were completely ineffective, this 2-week-after-vaccination un-vaccinated status scam can make them look pretty effective. Worse yet, for 2 weeks, maybe the most important weeks, the ill health effects of the vaccines are being shifted to being the ill health effects of NOT taking them.

This is a statistical scam. But, they'll just say that Peak Stupidity also has a bad cattitude. Thank you, Senor Gato Malo, for elucidating this scam with your examples.

* Covidiots like the iSteve commenter "HA" have said this is a straw man. Nobody said it was the Black Death 2.0. Personally, I like to use the strong language, but let me put it this way: This Kung Flu "pandemic" is not the big scare to me that these commenters and writers have kept saying it should be either. How about that?

Sunday - February 13th 2022 7:10AM MST
PS Excellent summary Mr. Achmed.

This dread plague has never gotten in enough Dunbar numbers despite all the statistical rigging Big Med can push. Everyone in my social and familial circle has gotten COVID. Four people in their late 70s ended up in rehab hospitals for a few days. No deaths.

As soon as I heard "95 point-bazillion-percent effective" I knew what was next: variant after variant, and counter-factual reasoning that, ackshully, the magic shot only prevents hospitalization or death. Well, in 50-somethings any way. And Alexandria Maria Guillermo Duval Ocasio-Cortez would be DEAD without the vaccine!

I'm very disappointed in Sailer, Cochran, Taleb, Scott Adams and others. All that critical thinking they pride themselves on just went right out the window because they're my age and older and realizing they've only got one or two good decades left. Yikes!
Mr. Anon
Saturday - February 12th 2022 1:25PM MST

The Pandemic is Dead! Long Live the Pandemic!


"In a truly startling coincidence, Moderna’s HIV vaccine began clinical trials the exact same day the “new variant” of HIV hit the headlines, and the same week as the NHS’s annual “HIV Testing Week”. Funny old world, isn’t it?"


By the way, this "new variant" is supposedly super-virulent and yet has been hiding out in the Netherlands for the last three decades. Huh? How can a sexually transmitted disease be super-virulent and yet be confined to a small densely populated region (actually, I believe it is the single most densely populated region in the entire World) - a region with permissive sexual mores and a liberal tolerance for homosexuality and drug use. Why doesn't this story add up?
Adam Smith
Saturday - February 12th 2022 11:56AM MST
PS: Good afternoon, everyone...

I hope this sunny afternoon finds everyone well...

I agree! With everything everyone has said, so I feel like there is little I can add to the discussion.

I, also, would like to thank Mr. Kief for bringing the Bad Cat, and his bayesian datacrime blog post, to my attention.
I've read a few other blog posts from el gato malo and have thoroughly enjoyed them. Thanks Dieter!
(Thanks for the other links and posts too. Lots of interesting info. I hope you have a great weekend Dieter!)

To rehash a PS comment (posted by Lawn Darts Champion) from about 2 and a half weeks ago...

"How grampaw would laugh uproariously at every near miss while we played Jarts or Lawn Darts." - Good times!


I hope everyone has a wonderful weekend.

The Alarmist
Saturday - February 12th 2022 11:10AM MST

Some of my comments to the Chinese response to WuFlu, e.g. toal lockdown and social controls, ran along the lines of

“So the governments of the western world look at what the Chinese are doing, and they say, ‘You can do that? Here, hold my beer!’l

The Plandemic has been a race to the bottom for individual liberty.
Bill H
Saturday - February 12th 2022 9:11AM MST
PS I knew when the vaccine was first introduced that we were going to be bombarded with a barrage of nonsensical propaganda about it. I was tipped off by the "94% effective" claim.

They gave the vaccine to one group and not to another, and then compared the one group to the other without knowing how many of either group had been exposed to the virus. Some sort of newly invented voodoo mathmatics. Might have been able to say legitimately that "it appears to be about on the order of 90% effective," but a number as precise as 94% was pulled out of a place below the waist where the sun doesn't shine.

Making it worse was that both groups were wearing masks and were "social distancing," which were touted at the time as preventing spread of the virus. In a vaccine test?

When I served in the US Navy I did what the government told me to do. As a civilian... Fat chance.

I did not refuse the vaccine because I refuse to be told what to do. That would be a form of government control. All you have to do to get me to do what you want me to do is tell me not to do it. I am not controlled by government orders one way or the other. I ignore them.

I didn't refuse the vaccine because I'm afraid of them. They may do harm. I don't believe anything either side says. I don't disbelieve it either. It's part true and part propaganda. Unable to obtain information that I can trust I cannot make an informed decision, and I will not make an uninformed decision that is potentially harmful.

I rely on natural immunity because we have known about that phenomonon for hundreds of years, and I have seen no credible evidence that this virus is some freak of nature that does not behave as nature has dictated for centuries.
Saturday - February 12th 2022 6:42AM MST
PS: Thanks for spreading the word on the simple arithmetic of El Gato Malo, Mr. Kief. I'm sure others have understood this and written about it elsewhere too. Also I appreciate your links here to more on the statistical fudging.
Saturday - February 12th 2022 6:39AM MST
PS: UsNThem, I remember the big Totalitarian effort in China early on too. Ron Unz thinks these were faked videos ginned up for what he thinks was the purpose of the evil Americans who spread the virus. (The Chinese can't be evil in his eyes) However, OTOH, Mr. Unz using wording showing envy in how the Chinese DEFEATED this virus. He wants it both ways.

Anyway, I doubt the videos are made up, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if the media both in China and America spread these videos far and wide to increase the hype. What I have seen from my Chinese source is videos of recalcitrant Chinese people being held down by.4 guys and having the vaccine force into them. I wonder what Mr. Unz would say about that - breaking a couple of eggs to make a Covid-free omelet?
Saturday - February 12th 2022 6:33AM MST
PS: Dieter and Mr. Anon, at that Washington, FS rally a month or so ago, that Dr. Malone had some strong words for parents. I may see if I can find video on his short talk, or at least write about it.

Speaking of that, I hope we will read from Mr. Hail again soon. There's nothing new on his blog. The latest comment is from Mike Tre*, who asked Mr. Hail to please come on that particular iSteve thread to counter the arguments and hysteria out of HA. As for The Unz Review, Mr. Hail quit cold turkey, and that is admirable. For me, it'd likely be almost as hard as quitting smoking. (Just joking. I don't smoke, but I gather it's really hard to quit)

* We used to know him as MikeAtMikeDotMike.
Saturday - February 12th 2022 6:27AM MST
PS: For IsioT, if we can keep resisting, as plenty of Americans and now Canadians have, we can stay out the Great Leap Forward ourselves. You hate to see a family member get sucked in, but at least this GLF is not mandatory so far.

You are right about the TV. That generation is vulnerable to health problems simply due to advanced age (duh!), but they ARE also a generation that grew up believing that government and the media are on their side. The one in our family whose health took a turn for the worse from these shots still thinks that if the US Feral Gov't says this, hey, "they're the government, so, you know ..." She is a bright person in general - just one datapoint I got.
Mr. Anon
Friday - February 11th 2022 8:30PM MST

If I'm not mistaken the total time between first dose and "fully vaccinated" (i.e. 2 weeks after final dose is four weeks for the Pfizer mRNA shot and five for the Moderna (or perhaps vice-versa). That's a full month or more that somebody who has been partially vaccinated and presumably has some protection will - if he contracts COVID - be labeled as completely, entirely, totally unvaccinated.

There's a lot of room in there for fudging numbers.

More importantly, it's getting harder to deny that the vaccines pose real potential harms to a lot of people. And for young healthy people, those harms likely outweigh any benefit the vaccines may confer.

Two high-school basketball players collapsed on the court while playing a game and died this week.........on the same day. Did that ever used to happen?



The media will certainly not consider the possibility that they died of vaccine injuries, but it is entirely possible that they did.
Dieter Kief
Friday - February 11th 2022 2:18PM MST
PS Open Letter to the JCVI: Pause vaccines for children pending urgent review
February 11, 2022

Increase in all-cause mortality in males aged 15-19 requires immediate investigation


Quote from the letter:

The latest information from the CDC is extremely worrying, that of 4149 children, 100 (2.41%) had a serious adverse event, 15/4149 (0.36%) had increased troponin (12 confirmed to be myocarditis), 12/4149 (0.29%) had seizures, 2/4149 (0.048%) died (being evaluated). This in itself is a reason to review.

Furthermore, there is increasing evidence of impairment of immune function particularly following multiple doses of vaccine. Israel is now seeing serious illness and death after the fourth vaccine dose. There is also new bio-distribution data showing that mRNA and spike protein, far from being eliminated within a few days, are still persisting for 60 days or more. We have no knowledge of the long-term implications of vaccinating children against what is now acknowledged to be a very mild illness for them, indeed with 50% having no symptoms whatsoever.
Friday - February 11th 2022 9:38AM MST
Well said, AE. When I was still working back in 2020, I remember watching what was going on in China in January. It was kind of concerning, the measures the Chinese were taking in Wuhan. However, once things started getting hysterical here, I had my doubts. After damn near five years of governmental and media lying non-stop about Trump and not seeing people keeling over left, right and center I had a pretty good idea the danger of covid was being way over- hyped. Of course, the effectiveness and safety of the vax has been way over-hyped in the same way. Now, daily, more and more info is coming public about the lack of risk of covid and the dangers of the vax. I guess my biggest disappointment have been all my family and friends who have fallen for the scam. Only time will tell what the ramifications will be.
Dieter Kief
Friday - February 11th 2022 12:59AM MST
PS The more detailed the discussion of El Gato Malo's work is, the better.
HA and utu have had a little argument about El Gato Malo's paper just yesterday at iSteve's last Omicron Booster-shot post.

- Lots of people have now looked into EGM's paper like you have Mod. and Adam Smith (thx. Adam!) and The Alarmist who I think would see if there'd be something technically wrong with his methods / calculations.
I've also sent them to a German software entrepreneur and a patent holder. - They did not write back to me, so I'm not sure. But usually if they find something, they do.

Now Mod. You've looked into this stuff. Good.
Ahh - I forgot, German economist Stefan Homburg, who is a very well known Covid-policy critic, does not refer to this paper much, he might well know it though.

After El Gato Malo, the work of the two British mathematicians and stats experts Professor Norman Fenton and Professor Martin Neil came out.

They again had trouble publishing it. Never had trouble before, in pre-Covid days, they say.
But they finally did find an outlet and published it.

Meanwhile, in the real world of the British NHS, some data got published - maybe unintentionally, but who knows... - which would support El Gato Malo's perspective with real world data from Blackpool.

Here is the very interesting letter from Blackpool officials (more details in this twitter thread)


Her is the paper by Marin Neil/ Norman Fenton, which also looks into the two weeks after the vaccination time, to see what might take place there:


Note that these things might hang - if a bit whackily at least for the time being - together with New York epidemiologist Knut Wittkowski's idea that the vaccination might lead to adverse effects. I want to point out, that neither Sweden's epidemiology expert Johan Giesecke nor Switzerland's virology expert Beda M. Stadler agree with Knut Wittkowski in this regard. Both men are around eighty and quite experienced. Stadler has worked on mRNA vaccines for some time in his virology lab at Berne University.
I Saw It On Teevee
Thursday - February 10th 2022 11:50PM MST
PS How is the COV-LARP still going if muh vaccine is real?
Loving those memes of gangsters and rappers saying if you got three or four "vaccines" and still get the disease then you might want to start asking questions.
Elders in the family are dropping like dominos or going into clinical care and they were the first in line thanks to living in the virtual reality of muh teevee.
Brandon had another Freudian slip when he said that the cure would be worse than the disease.
The real plague is the global soviet Great Leap Forward Reset.
WHAT SAY YOU? : (PLEASE NOTE: You must type capital PS as the 1st TWO characters in your comment body - for spam avoidance - or the comment will be lost!)