Mortality addendum


Posted On: Saturday - May 29th 2021 8:39PM MST
In Topics: 
  Kung Flu Stupidity

Firstly, Peak Stupidity apologizes for the big gap in posting, compared to normal operations, in addition to the fact that there'll be only 4 real posts this week, counting this one. It's not that I got burned from the work for Wednesday's post I had to get my thoughts together on some number discrepancies from that post.

Upon looking at the actual death numbers from the years '15 to '19, I realized that they are a few percent higher than the numbers calculated from the spreadsheet. That total death number for each year is buried in a note underneath one of the other graphs in each of those CDC .pdf files. Yet, this is the file with the mortality rate for each age group. These were multiplied by census data on ages of Americans, if you recall.

I came upon 2 things to explain this discrepancy, one small, and one potentially large but somewhat unknown. See if you can think of what that 2nd one is, considering that the CDC got death certificate numbers from health departments, while the US Census Bureau gets its population numbers by, well, going around and taking a census (or collecting forms thereof). Not everyone answers the census, in particular a certain crowd that lives "in the shadows"

I'll have a post on this on Monday. In the meantime, here are just a few numbers from my spreadsheet calculation for 2020. (The Census numbers for 2020 were in a format of death rates for every age to the year, so I had to just do a slightly different job.)



Whoa, that's even more of a difference from the base number of the '15 '19 average. No, the reader may complain that "if they are all off, what's the point?" The point is the difference between the CDC's stated method vs. calculation expected death numbers for a normal year. Again, I don't trust their methods. If you don't trust mine, I can dig it, but then I'll explain what I think makes up the difference for each year, seeing as the CDC's own total doesn't match their age-based rates x the population groups.

Another thing to back up what I showed Wednesday was this study, done by or for the National Institute of Health just last month. It was pointed out to me by a commenter called "Turtlelamp" on that same iSteve thread. This one deals with the EXACT same problem. They looked at the March-August '20 period only, and don't mind their certainty of how many excess deaths were actually OF the Kung Flu:
An average of 1 370 000 deaths were reported over the same months during 2015 to 2019, for a crude excess of 301,400 deaths (128 100 non-COVID-19 deaths). However, the 2020 U.S. population includes 5.04 million more persons aged 65 years and older than the average population in 2015 to 2019 (a 10% increase). After population changes were taken into account, an estimated 217 900 excess deaths occurred from March through August 2020. [my bolding]
That's a difference of 83 1/2 thousand in just 6 months!

Please don't think that Peak Stupidity is going into analytic-hysteria mode. I'm sick of the whole thing, but I wanted to do this to point out discrepancies to the iSteve crowd. I don't care where the origin of the damn thing was either, as opposed to Ron Unz with his big crusade. The real story here is the PanicFest.

Comments:
Dieter Kief
Tuesday - June 1st 2021 9:34AM MST
PS The big theory about a US deep-state rogue-attack on China seems to slowly run out of steam. Latest article draws not that many comments - just 170 or so in two days.
https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-george-orwells-virus-lab-leak/
I read the article and must say: Understandably so the comments are dwindling down.
Moderator
Tuesday - June 1st 2021 5:11AM MST
PS: Regarding David Cole, I just read that article last night. I'm gonna write a post on this.
Moderator
Monday - May 31st 2021 1:30PM MST
PS: Haha, Alarmist! I've run into this same spelling problem before.

Dieter, I too will read David Cole's article. If I were featured on unz.com, I'd probably take some time to read other writers, if nothing else, to get some links to my own in. It's weird to me when Ron Unz has no idea what some of his writers are writing about, but then you're gonna need a bigger IQ than 212 to keep up with it all.

I think these people are connected somewhat, not many of them in real life, but on-line via their controversial views. I'm surprised, yet very glad, that the Unz Review features quite a few VDare articles. Mr. Unz doesn't agree on the illegal Mexican immigration at all, but he's a stand-up guy for not rejecting the VDare stuff (although, he doesn't seem to feature that many of the pure Mexican immigration invasion stories).
Moderator
Monday - May 31st 2021 1:25PM MST
PS: Thanks for the Fredo hilarity, Adam. I will watch the video later on, but from your first link, I had to put this bigger excerpt in:

*****************************
“You were going through some difficult times,” said Fauci, revealing that Cuomo was much sicker than he appeared, even as the host did his show nightly from his basement while under quarantine.

“I don’t think that people were really experiencing or realizing how you were really sucking it up to look relatively normal. But when you finished the show, when we started chatting at 11, 11:30 at night, you were wiped out,” revealed Fauci. “You not only had the acute difficulty with the virus that was replicating in you, but you had some of the secondary effects…the fever, the aches, the feeling washed out.”

“And even when you were viral negative,” said the NIH director, “I was concerned. You put on a great act in front of the TV because you were really wiped out badly.”
*****************************

Yeah, he puts a great act in front of the TV all the time, because he's a damn politician.

As for Fauci, how come he didn't call my 61 y/o friend who was weak for half a week, got the runs one time (TMI!), and got a fever up to 100!, or my other friend who felt queasy in his stomach for 4 hours out of the 10 days he stayed in his apartment (not my idea!), when THEY had the Flu Manchu. At least a robot call saying "please accept our condolences ... we feel for you. Now stay the fuck inside until we tell you what to do."
The Alarmist
Monday - May 31st 2021 1:20PM MST
PS

A rouge bioweapon? Let’s hope those rogues don’t weaponize lipstick ;)
Dieter Kief
Monday - May 31st 2021 12:47PM MST
PS Adam, thank you.

David Cole's recent Taki's Mag CO-19 articles Dr. Frankencovid and House of Faucistein are well-written and thoughtful takedowns of the CO-19 = a US rouge bio-weapon attack hypotheses. 
Adam Smith
Monday - May 31st 2021 9:54AM MST
PS: David Cole definitely reads Unz...

"Phrenology Today cover model Ron Unz..."

https://www.takimag.com/article/house-of-faucistein/


Adam Smith
Monday - May 31st 2021 9:31AM MST
PS: Good morning Mr. Moderator...

It's a pretty crude guesstimate and we can only speculate how many readers there are without doing some sort of audit of the comments or something. I too would think that there are many more readers than commenters, though I think the heavy commenters account for a large share of daily traffic. But yeah, I'd guess maybe 1000 "hardcore" users and then maybe 5000(ish) readers who only read a page or two on a somewhat regular basis and comment occasionally. (And there must be some yahoo news types who read something and quickly turn it off and never return.)

Still impressive though. Surely some of his readers are fairly influential people, I'll use Taki as an example. I'd imagine Sailer reads Unz too, though I have no way to know if either of them actually read what Unz writes. This article (https://www.takimag.com/article/ron-unz-gropes-the-elephant/) indicates that David Cole is at least an occasional reader or somehow interacts with the man.

Chris Cuomo really hammed it up for the camera. From hallucinating his dead father talking to him to Fauci calling him several times each day to check in on him (sometimes on TV for our viewing enjoyment) it was quite the show. As Fauci said to him "You put on a great act in front of the TV".

Little Fredo certainly doesn't seem like he has a respiratory illness in this clip...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93utf1PDEIs

https://deadline.com/2020/05/cnn-chris-cuomo-much-sicker-coronavirus-anthony-fauci-1202926023/

https://theprint.in/world/cnn-anchor-chris-cuomos-wife-says-she-bathed-in-bleach-to-combat-covid-19-sparks-row/408107/

https://fox8.com/news/coronavirus/cristina-cuomo-defends-bleach-bath-other-home-remedies-she-used-to-fight-covid-19/

https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2020/10/cristina-cuomo-revisits-her-bleach-bath

They should give little Fredo an Academy Award for Best Actor in a Propaganda or something.


Moderator
Sunday - May 30th 2021 2:04PM MST
PS: So sorry, Adam, I missed the 2 of your paragraphs the first time, as I rushed to respond. Yes, that's about what I was calculating, using very uneducated guesses, though.

Your guess of 1 in 10,000 was just people having HEARD of the site, much less regular readers. He's smart to have such a big spectrum of opinion though. The Commie-nostalgia crowd can read Godfree Roberts, Constitutionalist can read Ron Paul, etc, but anyone who is used to yahoo.com news and that may get freaked out by reading, oh, say Paul Kersey's blog.

On the census, yeah, I am the very same way. I have never filled out a long form, either orally or in writing. I have only given the guy what the US Constitution requires. (One time, way back, it was "one human, one cat. That's all I got for you.")

I can't remember the Chris Cuomo (hilarious) bit you described, as I've been off the TV, but then I'm sure Steve Sailer kept "us" up with it back then. I write "us" in quotes because that was when I quit reading his posts for a while - about 80-90% of them were on this Kung Flu. It was not his best period as a blogger.
Moderator
Sunday - May 30th 2021 1:52PM MST
PS: Mr. Kief, yes, after your *** are the complications that make getting a death count not easy at all. That's why people like Steve Sailer say that this "excess deaths" tells the whole story. First, you need to get a good baseline. Then, is it possible that influenza was actually there in numbers this year rather than some BS 3-digit(!) number I've read. Not only are diagnoses of causes of death not certain (with the co-morbidities too), but there were big incentives to chalk up illnesses and deaths to the Flu Manchu.

Yes, I'll write that short rant next week.

Mr. Smith, I should have done the math quickly in my head. I would also agree that maybe Unz Review could have 10,000 readers or so, but that's not even 1 in 20,000 adults. I'm certain that there are many more readers than comments, but, as you say, ask some people, and you'll have to increase your survey size to get a one. I just looked at your link. 1.55 Million page views in a month sounds good, but how many different individuals viewed them? I will admit that the site is addictive (to me), and I'm sure I've had days in which I load/reload an unz page a few hundred times. If that were an average, that's mean only 15,000 people were reading. However, maybe it's more like 10 page-views a day, making it 150,000 or so.

BTW, PeakStupidity doesn't work on that site, which is because I didn't want embedded "google analytics". You've gotta draw the line somewhere.

Adam Smith
Sunday - May 30th 2021 12:33PM MST
PS: Good afternoon Mr. Kief, Mr. Moderator and Friends...

Dieter, Thank you for the videos, and your thoughtful comments. I always enjoy reading your comments and learning about your perspective. Thank you.

“Not everyone answers the census...”

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/methodology/questionnaires/2021/quest21.pdf

I received the full census survey in the mail again the other day. You know, the one (above) that asks way too many questions, like they're going to break into the house while I'm away(see pages 16-18). I think they put us on some sort of list when we told the census guy to bugger off a couple years back. If they asked how many people live here, I would answer that. I'm not reporting all my income from multiple sources and all the other nonsense they ask about.

“I don't trust their methods. If you don't trust mine, I can dig it...”

I don't trust their methods either. It's been obvious for quite some time that they are manipulating the numbers to stoke the panic. I do trust your numbers though. You're honest about what you're trying to find out, the numbers you're using and we can check your work. Thank you for putting in the time so I don't have to.

Like you, I'm sick of the whole thing. It's nice of you to put this together to point out the discrepancies to the isteve crowd. Unfortunately, I don't know how many minds you will change. It seems like everyone pretty much picked their side by about a year ago. I do think you're bringing up an important point about how the numbers need to be adjusted to be in harmony with an older population. The baseline needs to be adjusted to from time to time.

“Ron Unz was just a small part of the PanicFest story, though, and not in a good way. He was the one touting millions of deaths in America.”

The nice thing about having a 214 IQ is that you never have to admit you were wrong...

If I recall, Neil Ferguson did way more damage with his Imperial College Covid Model/Predictions than Ron Unz. I'd venture to say creatures like Chris Cuomo and Sanjay Gupta also played a huge role in creating PanicFest2020, along with just about everyone in the lyin' press.

Chris Cuomo promoted the corona panic early on. He spent like a month reporting about his hallucinations, cold sweats and imaginary fever from his basement and had much more to do with creating panic than unz or sailer ever could. (Then his wife caught it and cured it in a weekend by bathing in bleach water.) His governor brother also bears a whole lot of responsibility along with most of the other blue state governors and political critters.

Every voice of reason last year was systematically silenced and censored. There was so much top down pressure to conform it boggles the mind. I agree, this manufactured panic is the real story here. Not that a bioweapon attack to get the party started wouldn't also be important, I just don't think most people would believe it, even if it were proven beyond a shadow of a doubt. A testament to the power of propaganda and the stupidity of the average human.

“One thing I'd like to know is how many unique visitors his site gets vs. page views.”

https://www.similarweb.com/website/unz.com/

Ron Unz probably has a pretty good grasp of the traffic he gets as he can install Google Analytics on his site, if he hasn't already done so. From the numbers on that similarweb.com page (if I'm reading them properly) I can guess unz.com gets about 4.25 million total page views each month or about 140000 total page views each day. Unique visitors, well that's going to be a much smaller number. (How many pages do you view in a day? How many comments do you make? How many times do you reload a page?)

Since I cleared my browser history a few weeks back I've visited unz 400 times and peakstupidity 200 times. This includes every time I hit the refresh button as well as every page I've loaded and every comment I've made. Sometimes I'll load 12 or 15 unz pages, even if I only read some of them that day. The next day I'll pull them up again if I'd still like to read them or check on the comments.

I would guess most of unz's page views come from a core group of several hundred (maybe as many as 1000ish) people. After you subtract all the page views, refreshes and comments from the regular commenters on unz you can try to guess how many other people read the website. As unz.com gets 58% of it's traffic from the united states (and the other 42% from the rest of the world) I'd guess 1 in 1,000 Americans reading unz is an optimistic number. I'd imagine only 1 in 10,000 Americans have ever heard of Ron Unz or his website. (Maybe more in California because he dabbled in politics there. He ran for governor in 1994 and u.s. senate in 2016. I doubt most of these people remember him or read his webzine.)

If I asked people around Dahlonega (or anytown USA) if they know who Ron Unz or Steve Sailer are I'd guess only a few people would know who I'm talking about. If I ask my wife she's probably heard of them, only because I've mentioned them but she wouldn't know much if anything about them. She gets her news from Lester Holt and google news. She certainly knows who Chris Cuomo and Sanjay Gupta are.

As Dieter said, Ron Unz had maybe a quadrillionth or so to do with causing panic fest. He's just not that influential.

He certainly did fall for it and promote it to his audience.

Thanks again Mr. Moderator.
I hope you all have a great day.


Dieter Kief
Sunday - May 30th 2021 4:52AM MST
PS
PS Here is an old ecologist warning us about the dangers of - - - - Stupidity - - in academia not least: Academia he says, trains the young in reality blindness here and peer-review fixations there

https://twitter.com/KarakeMark/status/1398643830161920006?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1398643830161920006%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.danisch.de%2Fblog%2F2021%2F05%2F30%2Fzum-niedergang-des-wissenschaftszirkus%2F

Since this man is old, what he says fits in nicely with what this Canadian lady has to say about the deceptive nature of the habits of the constant news consumption, modern societies have developed: 

https://tv.gab.com/channel/answerscanada/view/the-power-of-repeated-messages-ct-60b2874ce2d35bdf9a663098
Dieter Kief
Sunday - May 30th 2021 4:33AM MST
PS
I look at the Unz Review in an mostly rational way: Are there systematically relevant arguments discussed there, that can't be found elsewhere?
See - that's why I'm here: Excess deaths are systematically relevant for the proper understanding of CO-19.
(And there aren't but a few other aspects that really count. - In the end, this is not rocket-science, hehe, it's good old epidemiology.***)

*** Let me see: Reliable testing. Number of ICU-beds occupied by CO-19 patients. Number of people on a ventilator. Comorbidity and CO-19. Infectiousness and appropriate measures.Vaccines. Other treatments.
Simple as that. You could wrap that up quite nicely in 1000 words now.

II

Another remark about the UNZ-Review and other such publications. Such rather high-brow niche-medias are less about numbers than many think - and more about the curiosity and intellectual decency of their writers and readers. If you've really found something which is worthwhile -the word will spread.
Moderator
Sunday - May 30th 2021 3:14AM MST
PS: I agree that the Unz Review is small potatoes, Dieter. I would guess that not 1 in 1,000 people get on the site regularly. Ron's idiosyncrasies aside (especially his hysteria on the COVID), I wish his site would reach more people though.

Yeah, it's a bubble we're in. One thing I'd like to know is how many unique visitors his site gets vs. page views. See, once you have a very well-working and well-used comment section like that, I think page views for a given article go up non-linearly with the number of comments. People want to know who has replied to them, who has replied to someone else's. I brought this up one time, but it may have been to Steve Sailer, not Ron Unz, and never got an answer. It's possible Ron is fooling himself with how much traffic he gets, when it's all us same guys writing back and forth.... More power to him on reaching more people though.
Dieter Kief
Sunday - May 30th 2021 2:39AM MST
PS
Mod, my point was that it might be the case that you overestimate the importance of Ron Unz in this CO-19 context. - I'd say he made no difference at all in real world terms outside the UNZ-Review and maybe V-Dare and a few other such places, which goes to say: We could quite easily ignore Ron Unz here altogether as soon as we take the perspective of somebody outside - may I say: Our bubble?
People like Ron Unz can make a difference, as soon as they detect, find (= simply notice, at times even) something which is relevant and overlooked in the mainstream - which happens - and that's why the Unz Review is a site I like.
Moderator
Sunday - May 30th 2021 1:39AM MST
PS: Dieter, Ron Unz's big effort to root out the American bioweapon story is irrelevant, even in the off chance it were true.* Ron Unz was just a small part of the PanicFest story, though, and not in a good way. He was the one touting millions of deaths in America. He made some other big boo-boo predictions or pronouncements (remember that big praise of the politicians of California for saving millions of deaths?).

There's a guy who will NEVER admit he was wrong on anything major. The American bioweapon story is up his alley because it's anti-American and pro-Chinese. The guy has got blinders on about China.


* John Derbyshire, in a more recent column than the one I mentioned in the footnote of that other post, gives that theory a 10% chance of being right. He's just guessing, but I'm gonna guess that will piss off Ron Unz.
Dieter Kief
Sunday - May 30th 2021 1:23AM MST
PS
The real story is the panic fest - almost completely true. Since there was a bug out (still is) and people did get scared for some reason. - So the panic (yes, it is panic) is not completely unsubstantiated by the facts. But definitely so much so to claim that - yes it is true: Panic rules.

Ron Unz I think is pretty much irrelevant here. Because he had ca. a quadrillionth or so to do with what actually happened panic-wise world-wide. - And that is the main part of the real story.
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