Posted On: Saturday - May 29th 2021 8:39PM MST
In Topics:   Kung Flu Stupidity
Firstly, Peak Stupidity apologizes for the big gap in posting, compared to normal operations, in addition to the fact that there'll be only 4 real posts this week, counting this one. It's not that I got burned from the work for Wednesday's post I had to get my thoughts together on some number discrepancies from that post.
Upon looking at the actual death numbers from the years '15 to '19, I realized that they are a few percent higher than the numbers calculated from the spreadsheet. That total death number for each year is buried in a note underneath one of the other graphs in each of those CDC .pdf files. Yet, this is the file with the mortality rate for each age group. These were multiplied by census data on ages of Americans, if you recall.
I came upon 2 things to explain this discrepancy, one small, and one potentially large but somewhat unknown. See if you can think of what that 2nd one is, considering that the CDC got death certificate numbers from health departments, while the US Census Bureau gets its population numbers by, well, going around and taking a census (or collecting forms thereof). Not everyone answers the census, in particular a certain crowd that lives "in the shadows"
I'll have a post on this on Monday. In the meantime, here are just a few numbers from my spreadsheet calculation for 2020. (The Census numbers for 2020 were in a format of death rates for every age to the year, so I had to just do a slightly different job.)
Whoa, that's even more of a difference from the base number of the '15 '19 average. No, the reader may complain that "if they are all off, what's the point?" The point is the difference between the CDC's stated method vs. calculation expected death numbers for a normal year. Again, I don't trust their methods. If you don't trust mine, I can dig it, but then I'll explain what I think makes up the difference for each year, seeing as the CDC's own total doesn't match their age-based rates x the population groups.
Another thing to back up what I showed Wednesday was this study, done by or for the National Institute of Health just last month. It was pointed out to me by a commenter called "Turtlelamp" on that same iSteve thread. This one deals with the EXACT same problem. They looked at the March-August '20 period only, and don't mind their certainty of how many excess deaths were actually OF the Kung Flu:
An average of 1 370 000 deaths were reported over the same months during 2015 to 2019, for a crude excess of 301,400 deaths (128 100 non-COVID-19 deaths). However, the 2020 U.S. population includes 5.04 million more persons aged 65 years and older than the average population in 2015 to 2019 (a 10% increase). After population changes were taken into account, an estimated 217 900 excess deaths occurred from March through August 2020. [my bolding]That's a difference of 83 1/2 thousand in just 6 months!
Please don't think that Peak Stupidity is going into analytic-hysteria mode. I'm sick of the whole thing, but I wanted to do this to point out discrepancies to the iSteve crowd. I don't care where the origin of the damn thing was either, as opposed to Ron Unz with his big crusade. The real story here is the PanicFest.