Content Note: "Excess Deaths" calculations to come likely on Wednesday

Posted On: Monday - May 24th 2021 8:41PM MST
In Topics: 
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No, this is not a "site note", which in the past has meant I'm getting screwed in the ass by some change with SSL or hosting. This is an apology post about missing some content today.

I'd promised in the comments under this Steve Sailer post on the Kung Flu, or Flu Manchu as some are wont to say., to put up a post today with the following: From reading the CDC's own web site, their method of calculating "excess deaths" does not well take into account the aging of the US population.

Rather than write more tonight, I will explain in the post or two to come on this. Anyway, for readers from the unz site, I didn't meet my goal, as today got extremely busy. There are loads of other posts to write, so I think I'll put those in while I decide how to present my numerical story.

Mr. Anon
Wednesday - May 26th 2021 8:03PM MST

@Adam Smith

I" lost most of the respect I had for Mr. Sailer over his reaction to the panicfest hysteria and some of his snide comments to people who disagree with him. Mostly I lost respect for him because he really doesn't care about anyone's rights or liberty being taken by people masquerading as “government”."

Yes, you'd think that a man who makes his living by writing for a dissident website would have a greater passion for civil liberties. Apparently he doesn't care about them all that much.
Tuesday - May 25th 2021 4:22PM MST
PS: "that is called Wednesday". Haha, Alarmist. Yeah, and even if were a big deal in India right now, that just doesn't concern me.

Adam, I should be out more too. The time on the web can make the mind darker than it ought to be.

That's a good point about the population count, Peter. I wish ZERO of it were from immigration right now.
Tuesday - May 25th 2021 9:28AM MST
I was inclined to give Sailer slack, since as a cancer survivor it did seem early on that he was at some genuine risk. I can understand him panicking. But it's been a year now and he hasn't budged. Well, we all have our weak spots.

My take all along has been "without the panic and hysteria -- had life gone on as normal -- 95% of people would never even have known anything was happening." A year later I still think that's completely true. Hell, even in NYC with the giant initial spike, what did it change?

Yes, if it's your granny that dies, then it's tragic for you. But in the wider social picture, the deaths in New York affected.... nothing at all. Nothing needed to change. They were meaningless. The number of people negatively impacted by the lockdowns and hysteria must be what... 10X? 50X? more than those who had impacted health from Covid.

Shamefully, the numbers have been so cooked in so many ways, that I don't think we'll ever unravel the true story.

Another item that I would emphasize. Whatever the "total excess deaths" comes out to, it was a blip. Again, absent any personal tragedy you may have had, the total deaths were an complete non-event. Do we have empty towns and cities where the wildlife now roams because so many died? Of course not. So 500,000 people died, supposedly? Well 3.7 million are born every year. The total population count didn't take a single step backyard, not even by 1, ever during the scamdemic. Plus the how many millions via immigration.

What kind of a "pandemic" results in a few million increase in the total population?
Adam Smith
Tuesday - May 25th 2021 8:11AM MST
PS: Good morning everyone...

I lost most of the respect I had for Mr. Sailer over his reaction to the panicfest hysteria and some of his snide comments to people who disagree with him. Mostly I lost respect for him because he really doesn't care about anyone's rights or liberty being taken by people masquerading as “government”. If we roll over and let these obviously flawed people do to society and the world what they did with their weaponized hypochondria over a flu like bug then we are acquiescing to a master slave relationship. They are not my master, and I am not their slave.

I don't waste my time commenting under Steve's posts much anymore. I have better things to do especially now that spring is here.

I hope you all have a great day.

The Alarmist
Tuesday - May 25th 2021 6:47AM MST

Well, I don’t sign your paycheck, so who am I to complain?

I used to joke on UR that I would worry when they were burning corpses en masse in the streets. They almost got away with it by showing burning bodies at the crematoria in India and bodies floating down the Ganges, but after a little digging, somebody learned this is call Wednesday in India.
Tuesday - May 25th 2021 5:18AM MST
PS: oops, Mr. Anon, it was the commenter "Turtlelamp" (not seen him before) who steered me to that paper about doing the exact same calculations.
Tuesday - May 25th 2021 5:02AM MST
PS: Dieter, thank you for that. I don't read German, so I appreciate your giving me the gist of it.

With the appropriate US Census and CDC (non-COVID-related) web pages and a calculator and paper, and then under that iSteve thread, I was getting down to the numbers, simple stuff regarding the ages of Americans. I hope to get that data in some decent format by tomorrow. (Otherwise, it'll be another 5 days due to work.)

Commenter Travis replied to me under that iSteve "excess deaths" post yesterday with a link to a paper that does pretty much what I did, but for only 6 months. Over the March - August '20 period, they calculated a difference of ~75,000 (just scaling off a bar graph on the paper) deaths being due to nothing more than taking Americans' more advanced ages into account. I will link to that, of course.
Tuesday - May 25th 2021 4:56AM MST
PS: Wheeww, long reply there, Mr. Anon, and I forgot one thing:

I don't read Utu's and HA's writing at all anymore. They won't answer any real arguments, and they both come across as jerks.
Tuesday - May 25th 2021 4:54AM MST
PS: Mr. Anon, as I will normally do, once I got started, I go through whole threads on iSteve. I read that one of course, and spent time on my calculations rather than a choice reply to iSteve. Really, in this one his post itself was pretty balanced and generous to his detractors. His one comment to Mike Tre, aka MikeatMikeddotMike, about people needed to apologize really irked me.

Nobody likes it when he uses that "It's almost like .." phrasing on them, first of all. Secondly, Mr. Sailer made ridiculous estimates of deaths back in March and April of '20. I am trying not to antagonize him directly, but I'd call that a hysterical phase on his part, brought on by his believing all the very Infotainment and government outfits he normally rightly distrusts on everything else. He should admit he was wrong there.

In addition, throughout most of last year, till he almost left this stuff behind, Mr. Sailer still was perfectly fine with this and that new government control programs, never even mentioning "oh, but is this worth the further loss of liberty for Americans". OK, I never thought of him as any great Constitutionalist, but I think that's what he ought to admit he's wrong about.

How to say this nicely, next time a post like this comes up is another thing.

It's timely that you mentioned a donation. I have an appreciable amount in a drawer at the house, slated for him, pending my checking on the address (snail mail). I doubt he reads here, and I am glad right now, as I don't want to think I'm holding anything "hostage". I'd hesitated, but I still appreciate the guy's work. Yeah, he toots his own horn a little too much, and he won't admit he's wrong.

Steve Sailer is a force for good, and you've gotta admit (if you've gotten into this), but he's a lot easier to deal with on-line than Ron Unz. (I'll get to something Ron Unz wrote to me in a post today, regarding the last chapter (besides the Epilogue) of that Josh Rogin book.)
Dieter Kief
Tuesday - May 25th 2021 1:02AM MST

Here is the Swiss immunologist professor Pietro Vernazza about your point, Mod, with regard to CO-19 excess deaths in Switzerland:

Professor of immunology Pietro Vernazza: "Now, the total number of deaths in over 65-year-olds is often assessed in a year-on-year comparison. But this age group has increased by 10 percent in the last five years. Mortality is now defined as the number of deaths per 100,000 people per year. If you now study the death rates in people over 65 for the past 10 years, you will find that mortality in 2013 and 2015 was higher than mortality in 2020

? So in your view there is no exceptional excess mortality in 2020?

Pietro Vernazza: This is not my Point of view: that's what the numbers tell us.

Here is the link

The Swiss debate did go well and they managed to avoid CO-19  panic and there were many factors at play. I think Pietro Vernazza and retired virologist Beda M. Stadler**** did make a difference because the regular guy in the street did listen to what they had to say - and READ what they wrote, not least in the regional press, which is still going comparatively strong n Switzerland, but also in the leading bigger papers and the public broadcasting programs, who did enable both anti-panic professors to make their points quite often.

  - But there is something else going on too: People know their cities and villages hospitals and cemeteries - they have a gut feeling if there is something rather distracting and scary happening there - or not. This might even have been the single most important point. 

Kratoklastes and some other commenters at iSteve and Unz have remarked comparable effects as Vernazza and Stadler for the US. Unfortunately, nobody with the possible exception of Mr. Hail seems to have summed these findings up in an article.So - keep going, Mr. Moderator!

****Ivor Cummins called him a big European voice and named him The Virus Pope of Europe, which was - let me make this point very short: Very Irish. - (A bit trickster-like too and it thus slowly but steadily turned into a self-fulfilling prophecy. (Ivor Cummins is an incredible guy and a man of true wits.) 
Mr. Anon
Tuesday - May 25th 2021 12:50AM MST

Here I was thinking I might contribute some money to Steve, much as I was thinking the same thing last year in March but.........Nope. I've lobbed some dough his way in the past, but I don't think I'll ever give him another dime. He'll have to rely on all those fans of golf course landscaping.

You'd think a guy with all the time on his hands he has might take the trouble to closely compare this pandemic with past pandemics, but he seems loathe to do so, and whenever I bring up objections to any of his points, he seems to be willfully obtuse, and gets snide.

And as to some of his COVIDista commentariat - like Utu, Turok, and - especially - that asshole named "HA", if they caught fire, I wouldn't piss on them to extinguish the flames. They're roaches, as far as I'm concerned.
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