Posted On: Tuesday - October 3rd 2023 4:33PM MST
In Topics: General Stupidity Pundits The Future
Remember this Sci-Fi picture?
The title has more of a past-tense meaning with a missing subject, not an imperative to the reader. It's been nearly a month since the our post Peak Stupidity is FOR the alleged Depopulocalypse - Part 1: Substack essay, written to start off some essays arguing against the worries about decreasing population (in MOST of the world). In fact, my point in bringing up the essayist John Carter and his Postcards from Barsoom* site up was to argue against what he wrote.**
I wrote last time that I wanted to read these 3 long essays by this substack writer first before I continued on my discussion here. Well, that was just last week, and, not only that, but after reading it all, I agree with so much of his writing that I don't have so much of an argument! I'll first use this post to highly recommend the reading of these 5 (Roman Numerated) sections in the 3 posts of his series:
Depopulocalypse
Depopulocalypse II – Solutions That Don’t or Won’t Work
Depopulocalypse III – From SINK to FLOAT
Besides the very brief intro and conclusion (plus standard promotion of his substack world) his 5 sections are:
I. The Depopulocalypse: This is a definition and explanation of what's going on with world populations. Yes, he does note the extremely problematic exception of sub-Saharan Africa. He is not the least bit woke about it either:
On the current trajectory, by mid-century the only geographical region with a surplus of young humans will be Sub-Saharan Africa, and uh ... well if your plan is to try and maintain an advanced industrial civilization with Bantus, all I can say is good luck with that.You are welcome at Peak Stupidity any time, Mr. "Carter".
II. Factors Reducing Fertility: He breaks these many factors along the division of Biological factors, Economic factors, and Sociological factors. I can't say I agree with it all 100%, maybe even not agreeing with certain particular changes to people, economics, and society being factors at all for a few of these. However, it's VERY interesting reading.
III. What We’ve Already Tried: The writer's 2nd web page (of the 3) has the title Solutions That Don’t or Won’t Work, but it basically starts here. Since even the widespread discussion that there IS this fertility problem in the world is very new***, most of what is discussed here, actions by certain countries, is recent. Not nearly so much attention has been paid, and not nearly the amount of hot air, money, and attempts at control-freakery has been spewed, grubbed, and laid down upon us compared to the massive Climate Calamity™, and it being a complete farce at that. (That's why I'm much more prone to enjoying this guy's writing now.) One can argue about this fertility crisis - is it bad? - but it's plain to see in simple statistics.
IV. Dystopias Born of Desperation: This part gets pretty Science Fictioney. It also assumes that the medium-term problem of heavily-older populations being supported by so few young people is part of the big problem. It is a problem, of course, but it's not any part of the long-term issue here, and that's where I disagree with the writer, leading to a disagreement on whether the long-term issue is ANY kind of problem at all.
V. Solutions to the Fertility Crisis: Here are the factors from Mr. Carter's Section II, and per his note, in no particular order:
1) ObesityI could have listed these while summarizing Section II, but anyway, his particular solutions to each are discussed. Are they all necessary? No. Is solving any ONE factor alone going to fix things? I don't know. We do both agree that number (5) is self-correcting.
2) Hormone-disrupting chemicals
3) Urbanization
4) Difficulty finding a spouse
5) High expense of housing and children
6) Long duration of education
7) Incompatibility of family and professional lives
8) Child-rearing being seen as low-status
OK, so rather than I start writing lots about this Depopulocaplypse (Full attribution here - LUV his term!), I will ask the reader to check out these 3 essays on Postcards from Barsoom. It's an hour or two of very interesting and fun reading... except if you have to read the text over the brown background on a phone! I had no choice there at the time, but, see what I mean, it was worth it for the interesting reading.
We are living in the times described in 1970s Sci-Fi books, in a lot of ways, most of them not so good. As Instapundit bemoans, "where are my flying cars?!" Really, they aren't so out of the question, but flying cars for us fairly few enlightened souls with lots of disposable time and money in a non-Idiocracy was supposed to be the deal. That's not what I see.
There will definitely be a post here soon arguing against the basic premise of Mr. Carter's that decreasing population numbers are inherently bad.
* Substack pundit "John Carter" is definitely a Sci-Fi fan, as "John Carter" is the main character in the Barsoom tales, that took place on Mars in a century-ago Edgar Rice Borroughs series of Science Fiction novels. The cool futuristic paintings, such as the one above, adorn his blog posts. It'd make sense for Mr. "Carter" to be writing about the future, as it is coming most quickly.
** More particularly, in that month-ago post, I noted that it was one Climate Calamity™ reference in the beginning of one of his posts that almost turned me off to reading him at all - sarcasm is not always easy to detect. As it turns out, this John Carter is against the Global Climate Stupidity, just another point in his favor. I'm so sorry to have even mentioned this!
*** In my mind, it's only a decade old, but then I'm no Sociologist or other type of bullshitter. Perhaps this was discussed 2 decades ago, but there's been a residual effect of the only half-century ago talk about the "Population Bomb" from the Club or Rome types that couldn't be overpowered in a couple of decades.
Comments:
Moderator
Sunday - October 8th 2023 10:45AM MST
PS: Brad, did you mean writers or commenters? I'm one of the latter, and, in response to your question, I'm one of the former.
Brad
Saturday - October 7th 2023 11:10AM MST
PS They got some good writers over at Unz along with some freaking loonies. Which one are you?
Moderator
Friday - October 6th 2023 6:47AM MST
PS: Sorry, I didn't see the comment till now, Mr. Hail.
On Japan: I also don't agree that the low fertility rates being seen almost everywhere but Africa constitute a crisis, so I see no long-term problem from what is going on in Japan. (The medium term one - lots of old people vs young people, is something to be discussed, which he does to some degree).
I want to use Japan as an example of a country with a decreasing population that is NOT suffering from an immigration invasion, at least YET. That's why I would write about the place and try to imagine its future.
I think John Carter's sympathies do lie with the original White people of America, Mr. Hail, but he's not explicit. He is explicit about a "nation of Bantus" saying "good luck with that". But no, he's not overtly pro-White Christian. He may be more of a Globalist, not politically, but in his future sci-fi-story-come-to-life thinking on this.
On Japan: I also don't agree that the low fertility rates being seen almost everywhere but Africa constitute a crisis, so I see no long-term problem from what is going on in Japan. (The medium term one - lots of old people vs young people, is something to be discussed, which he does to some degree).
I want to use Japan as an example of a country with a decreasing population that is NOT suffering from an immigration invasion, at least YET. That's why I would write about the place and try to imagine its future.
I think John Carter's sympathies do lie with the original White people of America, Mr. Hail, but he's not explicit. He is explicit about a "nation of Bantus" saying "good luck with that". But no, he's not overtly pro-White Christian. He may be more of a Globalist, not politically, but in his future sci-fi-story-come-to-life thinking on this.
Hail
Thursday - October 5th 2023 8:38PM MST
PS
-- On demographic-politics and the cliched "Japan" trope --
I see that the writer John Barsoom Carter points to JAPAN which, he says, is "on the leading edge of...demographic collapse." He cites Japan's TFR in the 1.3 to 1.4 range, as it has been for thirty years.
Japan has actually been below replacement-rate fertility since 1957. From 1957 to about 1977, they were at near-replacement fertility, but then fell off to the familiar 1.3 to 1.4+ range by the mid-1990s and ever since. To some people this may seem like a crisis but the country is, in fact, doing fine. So--- rather than Japan being an example to be afraid of, Japan is really a case of low-fertility success. Low TFRs for sixty-five years and things are basically doing well.
His immediate pointing to Japan makes me by instinct suspicious that the author doesn't know what he's talking about or has some ulterior agenda. It is a misleading and cliched reference in the world of population-demography studies. Or he is intentionally pitching the whole matter to a lower-level audience he knows will recognize the "Japan" reference, and playing to an audience that he knows will nod along with him is something he finds works for him.
While one could criticize the kneejerk "Japan" reference on several levels (as the essayist himself does, making it partially a strawman he uses), I'll just stick with one that I think is particularly important:
There is no difference between Japan's population-crisis and the USAs, or the entire White-Christian West's. The White fertility rate in the USA is the same as Japan's. Some areas of Europe are worse off by any measure. So what is the purpose of singling out Japan, much less making it a center-piece of an essay-argument?
In the USA, full-White fertility is now below 1.4, the same number he claims to be outraged about over Japan. (I showed this some weeks back but it was only published in my unfortunate traffic-suppressed HailToYou.wordpress.com). The Regime in the USA is managing a population pyramid-scheme, and has been doing so for about fifty years.
There is no need to use Japan as a scare-story when the USA itself is in the same position. No. Scratch that. The USA is in a considerably worse position because of the population pyramid-scheme policy.
The 7 million Biden asylum seekers, if citizend-in and allowed to bring in relatives will at least double their own number, and probably have a considerably higher TFR than the White-Christian core-population, which is headed downward toward the 150 million mark in by mid-century. The Biden-refugees and their relatives and children and grandchildren alone (the demographic hit by the open-border just in 2021-2023) could number 20m or more by the same time, ultimately a 15%+ population-replacement level from 2.5 years of "border policy" alone. Add that to other things going on (legal migrants, fertility-gaps, Wokeness' effects) and it looks bad, of course.
I don't know who the writer is or what his agenda is, but he is probably smart enough to figure these things out. But why won't say it? In his essay he seems to avoid the issue of the White-Christian demographic-crisis, and talks around it. Most everything indirect or implied from what I've read from his essay. Why are people so reluctant to identify the USA's own population crisis?
-- On demographic-politics and the cliched "Japan" trope --
I see that the writer John Barsoom Carter points to JAPAN which, he says, is "on the leading edge of...demographic collapse." He cites Japan's TFR in the 1.3 to 1.4 range, as it has been for thirty years.
Japan has actually been below replacement-rate fertility since 1957. From 1957 to about 1977, they were at near-replacement fertility, but then fell off to the familiar 1.3 to 1.4+ range by the mid-1990s and ever since. To some people this may seem like a crisis but the country is, in fact, doing fine. So--- rather than Japan being an example to be afraid of, Japan is really a case of low-fertility success. Low TFRs for sixty-five years and things are basically doing well.
His immediate pointing to Japan makes me by instinct suspicious that the author doesn't know what he's talking about or has some ulterior agenda. It is a misleading and cliched reference in the world of population-demography studies. Or he is intentionally pitching the whole matter to a lower-level audience he knows will recognize the "Japan" reference, and playing to an audience that he knows will nod along with him is something he finds works for him.
While one could criticize the kneejerk "Japan" reference on several levels (as the essayist himself does, making it partially a strawman he uses), I'll just stick with one that I think is particularly important:
There is no difference between Japan's population-crisis and the USAs, or the entire White-Christian West's. The White fertility rate in the USA is the same as Japan's. Some areas of Europe are worse off by any measure. So what is the purpose of singling out Japan, much less making it a center-piece of an essay-argument?
In the USA, full-White fertility is now below 1.4, the same number he claims to be outraged about over Japan. (I showed this some weeks back but it was only published in my unfortunate traffic-suppressed HailToYou.wordpress.com). The Regime in the USA is managing a population pyramid-scheme, and has been doing so for about fifty years.
There is no need to use Japan as a scare-story when the USA itself is in the same position. No. Scratch that. The USA is in a considerably worse position because of the population pyramid-scheme policy.
The 7 million Biden asylum seekers, if citizend-in and allowed to bring in relatives will at least double their own number, and probably have a considerably higher TFR than the White-Christian core-population, which is headed downward toward the 150 million mark in by mid-century. The Biden-refugees and their relatives and children and grandchildren alone (the demographic hit by the open-border just in 2021-2023) could number 20m or more by the same time, ultimately a 15%+ population-replacement level from 2.5 years of "border policy" alone. Add that to other things going on (legal migrants, fertility-gaps, Wokeness' effects) and it looks bad, of course.
I don't know who the writer is or what his agenda is, but he is probably smart enough to figure these things out. But why won't say it? In his essay he seems to avoid the issue of the White-Christian demographic-crisis, and talks around it. Most everything indirect or implied from what I've read from his essay. Why are people so reluctant to identify the USA's own population crisis?
Moderator
Thursday - October 5th 2023 8:33PM MST
PS: You're right, Mr. Blanc. He did not bring up this. However, I just noticed today that one of the unz writers, Kevin Barrett, has a post up referring to "John Carter"'s newer post on the Covid PanicFest. Mr. Carter is on our side, that's for sure.
I'll have to link to that in a short post:
Why Smart People Do Stupid Things (Like Getting mRNA Injections):
https://barsoom.substack.com/p/why-smart-people-do-stupid-things
I'll have to link to that in a short post:
Why Smart People Do Stupid Things (Like Getting mRNA Injections):
https://barsoom.substack.com/p/why-smart-people-do-stupid-things
Moderator
Thursday - October 5th 2023 9:19AM MST
PS: Mr. Blanc, I will have to look through the 3 pages again with a search for "vax","Covid" etc. He may have mentioned this possible factor, but my memory might be from other reading. I'll write back to you later about this.
MBlanc46
Thursday - October 5th 2023 7:44AM MST
PS His list omitted the Vaxx.
I believe it is being caused by all the hormones from birth control pills. The timeline seems to fit pretty well.